French Open

[stroke]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/K75AZpYF7ZmTsmvG9

Updated odds to win the tournament.

[jimlosaltos]

Djokovic withdraws from the French Open!... https://tennistemple.com/r/news_dyOP

Well I am certainly surprised. What a break for my pick to win the tournament, Ruud.

Novak Djokovic has been forced to withdraw from Roland-Garros after MRI scans revealed "a torn medial meniscus in his right knee."

That means Jannik Sinner is guaranteed to become the world number one on Monday. Sinner's uber-coach Darren Cahill has now taken four players to world No 1. Hewitt, Agassi, Halep and now Sinner.

[stotty]

Two five setters had pretty much blown his chances anyway in my view with still so much to do to win the tournament. I wonder what his prognosis is? It's usually a couple a month for that kind of thing. Is it similar to the type of injury that ended up finishing Roger?

[jimlosaltos]

Two five setters had pretty much blown his chances anyway in my view with still so much to do to win the tournament. I wonder what his prognosis is? It's usually a couple a month for that kind of thing. Is it similar to the type of injury that ended up finishing Roger?

Given that my medical opinion is worth as much as my medical degree -- which is zero -- I'd say yes but nowhere near as far along.

Remember, Fed had 4 knee surgeries, 3 on one knee. My suspicion is that the third one was a "regenerative surgery". These days the SOTA when the damage gets that far is grafting on a bone sliver from a donor with a kernel of meniscus to regrow it.

But with only one incident Djoko should be nowhere near that stage.

There are two options to start with: Rest or surgery.

Rest generally requires 4-6 weeks before return to "heavy work or sports". That's if Djokovic is lucky.

If it's surgery because the damage is greater, then it takes 3-6 months.
Variables: Athletes can recovery faster in many cases, but also will put the healing joint under more stress.

Both assume an initial surgery. With meniscus surgery, they simply removed damaged sections. Each iteration leaves your knee with less protection, until you end up needing something substantial -- like Fed or Wawrinka.

I just found an example of an extraordinary recovery which MIGHT get Djoko back by Olympics or Wimbledon. I'll post that in another comment.

[jimlosaltos]

Luis Suarez, a soccer pro, recovered from meniscus surgery and was back playing in four weeks.
Note this article is from 2014 so surgery might have improved. Again, we do not know if Djoko requires surgery.
Here is the BBC article from 2014.

Excerpts:


Suarez injured his left knee while training for the World Cup and an MRI scan on 21 May found some damage to the meniscus.

The 27-year-old Liverpool star had keyhole surgery soon afterwards.

Although he missed his country's opening match in Brazil - which they lost - he was ready to face England on Thursday.

A common sports injury, particularly in footballers, a tear to the meniscus can take up to six weeks to heal.

There are two menisci within each knee, and these are essentially pads of cartilage or tough, flexible tissue.

The menisci are cup-shaped and sandwiched between the bones of the lower and upper leg.

They help to stabilise the knee joint and act as shock-absorbers.

Adrian Wilson, a specialist knee surgeon with Hampshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, is not overly surprised by Suarez's speedy return.

There are other examples of athletes who have had this type of knee surgery and made similarly fast recoveries, he says.

"It is possible to do minor, tidy-up-type surgery and to be back performing at a high level within a few weeks."

Ian McDermott, a knee surgeon with London Sports Orthopaedics, takes a different view. He says Suarez's recovery is "bonkers".

"To be playing the way he did within four weeks of surgery is unheard of."

But there may be some long-term implications, he suggests.

"As a football manager you'd be delighted by his recovery but as a doctor you'd be horrified. It leaves him very vulnerable in the future."

By playing football regularly with a trimmed or damaged meniscus he could run the risk of getting arthritis in his knee, or suffering more serious knee problems, in the future, Mr McDermott says.

'Fitness level helps'


The operation would have involved an arthroscopy of the knee, also called keyhole surgery.

This is a relatively minor procedure, performed under a general anaesthetic, and normally lasts about half an hour.

There is no indication as to how serious the striker's injury was.

However, Mr Wilson says surgery which involved repairing the meniscus - rather than simply trimming it - would have been more lengthy and complex and would have resulted in a longer lay-off.

Either way, Suarez's high fitness levels would have helped his recovery.


Dr Kal Parmar, a sports physician at University College London's Institute of Sport, Exercise and Health says Suarez's injury must have been operated on very quickly, within a day or two of the injury.

Physiotherapy and strength conditioning would then have played a key part in his recovery after surgery.

"The focus at that stage is on controlling the swelling and increasing the function of the knee joint," he explains.

"Suarez is very well conditioned anyway and his muscles are in good shape. He must have flown through rehab.

"I wouldn't say he looked like he had a knee injury in the game."

For an "ordinary mortal", rather than a fit international footballer, at least six weeks would be needed to return to a normal level of basic activity - even after minor surgery.

Ironically, a calf strain or pulled hamstring - also common football injuries but which cannot be resolved quickly by surgery - would have taken much longer to heal and would probably have kept him out of the whole tournament.

Suarez was taken off on a stretcher before the end of the match, visibly tired and clutching his left leg.

It was no surprise that he was not 100% fit after several weeks of rest and rehabilitation.

Yet, depressingly for England supporters, he still found the energy and resilience to all but extinguish their World Cup hopes.

[stroke]

Tsitsipas and Alcaraz in a 2nd set tiebreaker after Carlos won the 1st set. Tsitsipas has fought very hard to get here. This seems like a must have for Tsitsipas to stay in the hunt.

[jimlosaltos]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/K75AZpYF7ZmTsmvG9

Updated odds to win the tournament.

Thanks for posting odds update.

Carlos was already the favorite, so that doesn't change. I'm not sure how to weigh Carlos vs Jannik. Their H2H is 4-4 with Alcaraz winning most recently on the slow courts in Indian Wells. But Sinner fell and hurt his wrists and elbows in that match, so I'd discount that one.

To me, their H2H starts after Sinner unveiling his improved serve at Wimbledon, and doesn't include IW this year because of the fall I mentioned. Jannik won in Beijing in straight sets, which is their only mutually-health match since Wimby.

If Ruud, a two-time finalist here, can survive Zverev, he "might" come in less tired and fitter than whoever survives a donnybrook in the Alcaraz-Sinner semi.

Zverev, coming off two five setters, then Ruud -- would he be on fumes in a final? That serve and backhand can beat anyone on a given day.

Personally, I'd be fine with Zverev playing de Minaur, just to stir things up <g>

[stroke]

I think we can put a bow on this match. Alcaraz up 2 sets. It is certainly plain for all to see why Alcaraz is the oddsmakers favorite to win the tournament. Sinner is not far behind. Ruud is still my pick.

[stotty]

You feel Carlos is too good for Stef. He can win with room to spare.

[stotty]

Carlos is through. If I was Stef I think I would go two-handed...

[stroke]

Alcaraz seemed to take away hope in that match. It is hard to imagine him ever beating Carlos at RG.

[stotty]

Alcaraz seemed to take away hope in that match. It is hard to imagine him ever beating Carlos at RG.

Or anywhere, frankly.

It's a terrible match up for Stef. The kick serve to the backhand is a terrible start to a point for him. The last point said it all, with Carlos standing almost in the tramline to serve out wide to Stef's backhand in the ad court. Stef knows what's coming but hasn't the backhand to do anything about it. Carlos can stand out wide to serve with impunity. Couple this with the fact Stef's backhand falls apart for spells at a time. At one point in the match he missed 11 backhands in a row.

He did great when he came to the net, though.

[stroke]

Or anywhere, frankly.

It's a terrible match up for Stef. The kick serve to the backhand is a terrible start to a point for him. The last point said it all, with Carlos standing almost in the tramline to serve out wide to Stef's backhand in the ad court. Stef knows what's coming but hasn't the backhand to do anything about it. Carlos can stand out wide to serve with impunity. Couple this with the fact Stef's backhand falls apart for spells at a time. At one point in the match he missed 11 backhands in a row.

He did great when he came to the net, though.

True all that. Carlos has a great kick serve, and as you say, it does not matter if it is telegraphed if your opponent has no answer. In fact, a telegraphed action by someone who knows it does not matter is even more insulting I would say. Kind of takes away hope.

[jimlosaltos]

Some background on Djokovic's injury:

Per Charlie Eccleshare and Matthew Futterman of The Athletic, {link} Djokovic had complained repeatedly about the playing conditions. The combination of heavy rain and some wind, repeatedly swept a thin coat of crushed brick off the court exposing the underneath layer of slippery limestone, used to promote drainage.

Excerpts: "Djokovic pulling out is a nightmare for the French Tennis Federation (FFT). He blamed the tournament and “very slippery” court for his injury on Monday and said his team would be speaking to the relevant event staff. The strength of feeling from the Djokovic camp was still there on Tuesday.

"There is lingering anger over the decision by tournament organisers not to listen to Djokovic’s warnings that the courts were becoming dangerously slippery because of the constant rain during the past week and then the quick shift to dry conditions Saturday night and Monday afternoon when he played."

Yet again, please spare me the trope that clay is a safer surface than hard courts and causes less injury to players. From Roger Federer's knee being torn by slippery, tape lines while playing in the rain at Rome, to Sasha Zverev's ankle being torn up when a chunk of Roland-Garros brick gave way as he slid, to Julianne Benneteau, fracturing his elbow when a big chunk of clay gave way under his feet, running on erratic, slippery, undependable clay is a risk.

[jimlosaltos]

One women's semifinal might be termed "The Upset Bowl"

17 yo Mirra Andreeva upset an ailing Aryna Sabalenka. Saby won the first set but sought medical treatment and ebbed as the day progressed.

The teen will meet Jasmine Paolini, whopulled off one of the bigger upsets of the event so far, taking out four seed Elena Rybakina this morning. Paolini's recent surge is doubly surprising given that she emerged at the relatively late age (for pro tennis) of 28 years old. That gives Italy two players into the semifinals, including Jannik Sinner. Make her the event's "Cinderella".

For TD Amelie Mauresmo, she's lost the defending champ Djokovic, and the women's 2 and 4 seeds.