Italian Open, ATP 1000

[jimlosaltos]

Welcome to Post Big 3 Chaos on the ATP.

Zverev barely survives Tablio by averaging - averaging 131 MPH on first serves. Max 141 MPH. If he meets Jarry it will be two 6 ft 7in big servers (Zverev served ranked 2, Jarry number 7) in the finals of a clay court tournament. The quarters included: Hubi Home server on ATP, Fritz number 4, and Tsitsipas number 10. This isn't 1990s clay court tennis anymore.

Again, this event has been all offense, all the time, at least in what I've watched. {Yes Zverev is listed at 6 ft 6 in, but that listing is from when he was a teen and he sure seems more than 1 inch taller than Hubi.}

Meanwhile, in the women's final: It’s the fourth meeting on clay between Swiatek and Sabalenka as World No.1 and 2. Are we entering a period where the two tours have reversed roles, with the WTA having a Big 3 and the ATP having upset after upset?

[jimlosaltos]

ATP Tennis Insight shot quality, serve and forehand for quarterfinalists.

Seemingly ever since Zverev appeared on the tour, the playbook has been avoid the backhand and hit wide to his forehand to draw errors.
Might need a new book.

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[jimlosaltos]

So, the men's final is set - two ~6 ft 7 in, huge servers battling for the title on a slow, clay court.

"Jarry led 40/0 in the final game only to see Paul claw his way back to deuce and ultimately force the Chilean to fight off two break points before closing out the victory on his fifth match point, 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-3 in two hours, 43 minutes."

The women's final has arguably the biggest server in the women's game today, Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga.

Trend or abberation?

[jimlosaltos]

Iga beats Sabalenka for her 8th time in their 11 meetings. This wasn't as close as their final in Madrid, where the altitude presumably favored Aryna's serve, 2 and 3 in an hour 29 min.s

Iga has now won her last nine singles finals, her fourth of the year, and at 22 years old, Rome joins Doha (2022, 2023 and 2024). and Roland Garros (2020, 2022 and 2023) as her third event that she has won three times.

[jimlosaltos]

Old doubles vets, Granollers/Zeballos beat the pick-up team of Bublik/Shelton in one men's doubles semi 4 and 4.

The veterans are a combined 77 years old, the upstarts 47 years old. Apparently, one can still volley while using a walker

[jimlosaltos]

Update on Alcaraz's forearm injury, very roughly machine translated from Spanish:

"Carlos is increasing loads every day with his forehand and at the moment, everything is going well. He is making cars very smoothly and everything is very controlled. They want to go very slowly. He still has fear in his head when it comes to hitting. What they usually say: that first you have to remove the head injury. If nothing strange happens, he will travel to Paris next Wednesday. Let's hope progress remains positive"

Original via Jose' Moron:

INFORMACI?N SOBRE ALCARAZ Carlos est? aumentando cargas cada d?a con su derecha y por el momento, todo va bien. Est? realizando carros de manera muy suave y todo muy controlado. Quieren ir muy despacio. ?l todav?a tiene miedo en la cabeza a la hora de golpear. Lo que se suele decir: que antes hay que quitarse la lesi?n de la cabeza. Si no ocurre nada raro, viajar? el mi?rcoles que viene a Par?s. Esperemos que el progreso siga siendo positivo

[jimlosaltos]

Zvever - Jarry 4-2 but the pair are 2-2 on clay.
This year, Jarry beat Carlos Alcaraz in Buenos Aires and Casper Ruud in Miami


"I think Nicolas is one of the most aggressive players we have on the tour," Zverev assessed. "Obviously huge serve, huge forehand. Tries to hit big from both sides of the court. A very impressive win against Tsitsipas. He was down throughout most of the match, always managed to come back. Very impressive from him."

[stroke]

Zverev strong favorite at an implied winning percentage of 73%. Zverev biggest advantage to me would be the backhand. I would think that would be his only goal, to see how many backhand to backhand exchanges he can get into. I prefer Jarry's serve, particularly his 2nd. Zverev's 2nd serve woes came into play in the semi's a bit, but Jarry will have to get to the point where the pressure is really on to possibly expose this. Jarry also has technically superior volleys.

[stotty]

Two very tall finalists, both with pinpoint stances.

[jimlosaltos]

Two very tall finalists, both with pinpoint stances.

And both very fast. Opponents tried to drop shot Jarry all week and it backfired over and over. Six 7!

[jimlosaltos]

It's very early at 3-3 in the first set, but so far this is more like a fast serve contest than a tennis match.

Zverev has only missed ONE first serve and won all 16 that went in. Poor Jarry has missed three times as many and lost two!

Zverev 16/17 in, won all of them. Jarry a paltry 16/19 in won 14/16.

Anyone remember Bud Collins announcing the Goran Ivanisevic d. Richard Krajicek Wimbledon final? Average - average -- rally was less than 1.5 shots. A 3 shot rally elicited Collin's try wit: "Holy Cow! Tennis just broke out."

Let's see if I can dig this up. Here we, at Tennis Abstract
Goran Ivanisevic d. Richard Krajicek 6-3 6-4 5-7 6-7(5) 15-13' in 1998 Wimbledon final.

https://www.tennisabstract.com/charting/19980704-M-Wimbledon-SF-Goran_Ivanisevic-Richard_Krajicek.html

[jimlosaltos]

Zverev wins his six Masters 1000 title, more importantly his biggest since the horrific ankle injury in the French semis vs Rafa in 2022, beating Nicolas Jarry 4 and 7.

Per the ATP Zverev committed just eight unforced errors - while hitting huge -- and won 95% of his first serves with 80% i, and no facing a single break point in the match. He only lost a single set in the tournament.

Is Zverev peaking at just the right time?

[stotty]

I always find him a littler underrated on clay. No one ever puts him in the reckoning, yet he is really good on clay. He's also got the best two-hander I have ever seen. We all marvel at Novak's backhand for it's consistency and precision, but when it come to red-lining it, Zverev's backhand can be out of this world.

[stroke]

I always find him a littler underrated on clay. No one ever puts him in the reckoning, yet he is really good on clay. He's also got the best two-hander I have ever seen. We all marvel at Novak's backhand for it's consistency and precision, but when it come to red-lining it, Zverev's backhand can be out of this world.

He is not really underrated as he was the 4th favorite entering the tournament. Novak was of course the strong favorite, 2,3, and 4 were Tsitsipas, Ruud, and Zverev, and they were really bunched very tightly odds wise. If Zverev continues to serve and hit his forehand like he did in Rome, he will be practically the favorite at RG. His backhand has always been top shelf, and his forehand is definitely looking much better. Really no where to go. Drop shots have to be a real tactic vs him. He is not good at the cat and mouse game. Sidenote, it is unbelievable to me he can physically compete as he does with type 1 diabetes.