Miami Open

[jimlosaltos]

Stats Grigor vs Zverev.

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[stroke]

Grigors backhand definitely held up. We need the shot quality stats.

[stotty]

Gregor is in the finals and, I believe, back in the top 10.
What a match. What a career come back.

18 aces vs a great returner.

And the key breaker - fell down after ball popped up off the net and still put it away. Gutsy match.

Gutsy being the operative word. Something we haven't seen enough of with Grigor at times. Again, I only watched the first set but he seemed to take off exactly where he left off versus Alcaraz. There were some challenging moments in the first set but Grigor held firm, which was important because you could see Zverev felt confident he was going to win that match.

There was a lot of talk about the match-up being a bad one for Grigor because the backhand to backhand exchanges will always work heavily in Zverev's favour. But Grigor has a fine sliced backhand, which, when employed down the line, presents a difficult forehand for just about anyone on the tour. Grigor can also reduce those backhand to backhand exchanges with good serving and at the same time bring his forehand into play. Now when I left the match that seemed to be pretty much how it was going in some respects. Grigor was also hitting a terrific length at times.

But, yes, he seemed more gutsy than in the past.

I need to watch those last two sets on replay.

[jimlosaltos]

In the first set (didn't see the second set) the significant thing was Carlos's lack of pace on his forehand. He had a few explosive spells but not too many. It's those explosive spells that do all the damage in my view. No one can live with him when he hits those heights.

I am not sure it was that much to do with Carlos's nerves; more Dimi's fine play. He served so well, yes, but also returned really well; deep and penetrating at times. His sliced backhand was immense and the ones he hit down the line onto Carlos's forehand were so effective they left Carlos shouting at his box in frustration.

Despite his past history Dimi played great clutch tennis on the night.

From Carlos's point of view I still think he needs to mature as a match player. His shot selection and rashness can land him in trouble and he's paid the price for that a number of times.

You wrote > the significant thing was Carlos's lack of pace on his forehand <

Agreed. When Carlos broke back in the second set he blasted his forehand. Ave 90-something MPH in that game, vs 75 MPH for the match.

Then he threw it away getting broken immediately. That was the ONLY game in the match where I remember seeing what we think of as Alcaraz's offensive game.

My comment on "nerves" might use the wrong word. I was thinking about his nerves-induced cramps vs Djokovic at the French.

But I'm not sure what omnibus terms encompasses the behavior we've seen since Cincinatti. Lack of confidence? Uncertainty? As you wrote, he's not letting it rip.

I attributed that lack during the Aussie to coach Ferrero being out with knee surgery. Both - confidence and Ferrero -- were back for Indian Wells. Then gone again in Miami.

Again, I've never seen a top ATP player being coached so much. Alcaraz is like an NFL QB with a headset -- this play is a run-pass-option etc. Where to return. Where to serve. In Indian Wells it helped him beat Medvedev. In Miami, he seemed confused and stuck with a losing strategy (moving back to return, which Grigor ate up) in the middle of the match. Strange?

[jimlosaltos]

Gutsy being the operative word. Something we haven't seen enough of with Grigor at times. Again, I only watched the first set but he seemed to take off exactly where he left off versus Alcaraz. There were some challenging moments in the first set but Grigor held firm, which was important because you could see Zverev felt confident he was going to win that match.

There was a lot of talk about the match-up being a bad one for Grigor because the backhand to backhand exchanges will always work heavily in Zverev's favour. But Grigor has a fine sliced backhand, which, when employed down the line, presents a difficult forehand for just about anyone on the tour. Grigor can also reduce those backhand to backhand exchanges with good serving and at the same time bring his forehand into play. Now when I left the match that seemed to be pretty much how it was going in some respects. Grigor was also hitting a terrific length at times.

But, yes, he seemed more gutsy than in the past.

I need to watch those last two sets on replay.

I'd highly recommend watching those sets!

Awesome for the drama but also for Grigor's tactics.

Grigor hits the down the line, sidespin backhand to no-man's land more than any player I can recall. Usually it provides a reset with the opponent hitting a safe, cross-court forehand. But at 6 ft 7 in or whatever, Zverev seemed to have trouble first getting there promptly but secondly in reaching down and taking a real swing. Worked repeatedly.

So many things Grigor did right -- the bunt service returns right to the baseline, the DTL backhands at just the right time -- but what stood out most was coming up with great serves under pressure. Early in his career, I recall him serving for the match perhaps twice vs Djokovic and both times not being able to get a serve in play. Just tight. And then mid-career he got a reputation for that, perhaps undeservedly since he was fighting a shoulder injury.

Last night. Ad out, hit the sideline at 120 MPH. Hard to do better.

If Grigor wins Sunday (long odds), I am personally nominating Jamie Delgado and, if he's still co-coaching, Danny Valderue for coach or co-coaches of the Year ! <g>

[jimlosaltos]

Well, this is an unusual stat from ATP's Tennis Insight. On your right side of the image, you see a depiction of Zverev forced to hit balls at a lower height than he is accustomed to. I earlier posted how Girgor's DTL side-spin nothing ball to no-man's land seemed to bother the tall German.

TD: Dimitrov wins 56% of the BaselinBattles against Zverev. Making Zverev play from an average hit height of 0.81m way below Zverev's average hit height in in 2024 of 0.98m

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[stotty]

I'd highly recommend watching those sets!

Awesome for the drama but also for Grigor's tactics.

Grigor hits the down the line, sidespin backhand to no-man's land more than any player I can recall. Usually it provides a reset with the opponent hitting a safe, cross-court forehand. But at 6 ft 7 in or whatever, Zverev seemed to have trouble first getting there promptly but secondly in reaching down and taking a real swing. Worked repeatedly.

So many things Grigor did right -- the bunt service returns right to the baseline, the DTL backhands at just the right time -- but what stood out most was coming up with great serves under pressure. Early in his career, I recall him serving for the match perhaps twice vs Djokovic and both times not being able to get a serve in play. Just tight. And then mid-career he got a reputation for that, perhaps undeservedly since he was fighting a shoulder injury.

Last night. Ad out, hit the sideline at 120 MPH. Hard to do better.

If Grigor wins Sunday (long odds), I am personally nominating Jamie Delgado and, if he's still co-coaching, Danny Valderue for coach or co-coaches of the Year ! <g>

Yes that down the line sliced backhand is key for Grigor in that match-up. It's a horrible shot for anyone to deal and especially for Zverev whose forehand is slightly suspect on low balls. They key for Grigor, and quite frankly anyone, is to avoid backhand to backhand exchanges with Zverev. It's lethal and probably the best two-handed backhand out there.

[stroke]

You wrote > the significant thing was Carlos's lack of pace on his forehand <

Agreed. When Carlos broke back in the second set he blasted his forehand. Ave 90-something MPH in that game, vs 75 MPH for the match.

Then he threw it away getting broken immediately. That was the ONLY game in the match where I remember seeing what we think of as Alcaraz's offensive game.

My comment on "nerves" might use the wrong word. I was thinking about his nerves-induced cramps vs Djokovic at the French.

But I'm not sure what omnibus terms encompasses the behavior we've seen since Cincinatti. Lack of confidence? Uncertainty? As you wrote, he's not letting it rip.

I attributed that lack during the Aussie to coach Ferrero being out with knee surgery. Both - confidence and Ferrero -- were back for Indian Wells. Then gone again in Miami.

Again, I've never seen a top ATP player being coached so much. Alcaraz is like an NFL QB with a headset -- this play is a run-pass-option etc. Where to return. Where to serve. In Indian Wells it helped him beat Medvedev. In Miami, he seemed confused and stuck with a losing strategy (moving back to return, which Grigor ate up) in the middle of the match. Strange?

It certainly appears to me also JCF overcoaching Carlos.

[stotty]

It certainly appears to me also JCF overcoaching Carlos.

It's a strange one. On the one hand he could certainly do with more caution at critical times while on the other hand what makes Carlos so special are those explosive spells. Sometimes the careless errors are irrelevant weighed up against the sudden bursts of explosive genius that makes those errors inconsequential. Other times those errors really hurt.

It's interesting also that the last remaining all court player (Dimitrov) with a truly full repertoire could wreak such mayhem with Carlos's game.

I think players in general need to be more self-contained and not be reaching for the players box for answers all the time.

[stroke]

Oddsmakers have Sinner at an implied winning percentage of 80%. The Sinner ping pong video game pressure is a lot to deal with. It is hard to disrupt. Wall of Med crumbled big time.

[stroke]

Grigor played an outstanding 1st set in losing 6-3. As the commentator said, there is no living with that kind of tennis".

[stotty]

It's very Djokovic-like at the moment. Just sustained pressure. Everything gets put back into play and the error count is very low despite belting the ball around at quite a lick. Not sure Grigor can live with this.

[stroke]

Grigor to his credit is stepping up and playing the ping pong tennis that he knows he has to vs Sinner.

[stroke]

Mesmerizing tennis, Grigor played so well, just not good enough. Sinner to me is playing as well as Fed did in 2017, when he won AO, Indian Wells, Miami, which to me, is the highest level ever played hard court tennis.

[stotty]

Just too good. I think Dimi had to do better behind his first serve as he did in his previous two matches - Dimi didn't quite hit those heights in the final. Sinner is playing very well. Moving well, returning well and showing great consistency. It will be interesting to see how he shapes up in the slams this year.