BNP Paribas Open aka Indian Wells

[stotty]

An in form Alacaraz demolishes and out of form FAA, outplaying him in just about every department. Alcaraz is looking pretty good.

[jimlosaltos]

Several matches worth checking out today; Monday:

Caspar Ruud vs Arthur Fils. Only time they met, Fils beat Ruud in straight sets in Hamburg.

Medvedev vs Seb Korda. Is Seb finally getting his A game back long after his Aussie wrist injury a year ago?

Musetti vs Rune a contrast in styles.

Today's OoP

filedata/fetch?id=103638&d=1710175315&type=thumb

[jimlosaltos]

Sunday's results had some intrigue:

Ben Shelton keeps blasting along. Took the long, hard way -- Ben earned 10 BPs but only converted one of them, and both players won an identical 111 points .. ., so Ben needed a pair of tiebreaks and 2:43 to top Francisco Cerdunolo and his big forehand. Still trying to figure out Ben's serve. He won 79% of his first save points but since Cerndunolo got more in he won more of his first serve points than Ben by a lot -- 85 pts to 62 pts.

Jannik Sinner keeps on cruise control. He averaged -- that's averaged -- 86 MPH on his forehand for the first set, won 3 and 4 over Struff.

Stef Tsitsipas in straights over Tiafoe. Stef looks a lot more comfortable with his first serve than he did in Mexico. Getting used to his new, trendy pinpoint or is his back improving? Certainly moved well and inside-in forehand remains deadly.

Woz won in 3 sets over upstart Katie Volynets. Seems like half the WTA players have the same large, B&W panel dresses coupled with blond highlights. They should have their names on the back of their jersey's like NBA players.

Top ATP Forehands Last 52 Weeks

From ATP/TDI via Tennis TV. Over last several months Sinner has crept up to 9.0 a statistical tie with Djokovic for the highest "quality" forehand by whatever statistical algorithm TDI has. I'm a tad surprised that Medvedev's ranks a smidge above such have hitters as Rublev, Tstisipas, and Ruud. Two that don't get enough credit are Grigor Dimitrov (4) and RBA (7).



filedata/fetch?id=103640&d=1710176091&type=thumb

[jimlosaltos]

Hear Sabalenka's comeback was something but I some how missed that match.
She must be one of the best, clutch players on tour. How many times has she faced eminent eviction and kept on going? Not to mention setting tour records for double faults, then calmly getting back up and hitting a great second to win a 'Slam. And another 'Slam.

Info in case you're interested.

Saby was down 4 match points to upstart, former NCAA champ Peyton Stearns (who had one solitary WTA win for the year coming in) yet won 6-7(7), 6-2, 7-6(6)

“She said at the net, “I actually had you,’” Sabalenka said. “She was right. I was just a little bit lucky probably to get this win.”

After Sabalenka saved the four match points in the third set to even the score, Stearns went up a break to take a 6-5 lead with an opportunity to serve out the match. But even playing with a sore left ankle and a limp, Sabalenka wasn’t ready to call it quits.

And searching ... Yes, YT has 5:37 min of highlights:

[jimlosaltos]

A few interesting results, some with interesting consequences.

Ghost of 'slams past, Gael Monfils takes our Cam Norrie in three. Kudos old dude. Wins one more and he can face Djokovic for the chance to trim their 1-20 H2H a bit <g>. Ruud-Fils on court as I type for the right to face Gael. Highest ranked player Djokovic can play in the quarters is Ruud, who he has a 5-0 record against. Why doesn't TPN's forum support the cupcake emoji?

Ben Shelton meets Jannik Sinner in R16, presumably tomorrow.. Damn! I'd hoped to see both when I got down there for the quarters the draw is denying me. A match where I want both players to win. And both are playing well, giving Ben only a puncher's chance. Looking ahead, I'd forgotten that Tsitsipas is 5-3 vs Sinner - including winning barnburner at the Australian Open in 2023 64 64 36 46 63.

WTA

Mom Shoot-Out. Woz meets Angie , presumably Tuesday, in the battle of the returning mothers.

And Osaka is one win again from meeting Coco Gauff, which will push the buzz meters into red

Second quarter women's draw has "opened up", which I believe is the cliche' about actually getting its top lopped off. And where did Jasmine Paolini come from this year? Diminutive 28 year old Italian is up to13 making her the highest ranked player in the second quarter branch. Paolini won Dubai, taking out Rybakina, Kalinskaya, Sakkari, Fernandez and more. Beat Kerber at United Cup. Better to be a late bloomer than to never bloom atall.

[stotty]

Ruud takes the first set 6-2 against Arthur Fils. They showed a slow motion clip of Fils hitting a forehand; his grips seems very extreme.

Ruud just goes to work playing the percentages; solid. The sort of stuff that wins matches.

[jimlosaltos]

Here's a compilation by ATP/TDI of the best strokes on Sunday, as measured by "highest quality", using the ATP's combo of speed, spin, location and other mysterious ingredients like wolf's bane and eye of newt.

Sinner = Best forehand
Zverev = Serve
Alcaraz = Backhand
Maroszan = Return

I plead guilty to not knowing a hoot about Maroszan but per Wiki he's 24 yo, French and ranked 57

filedata/fetch?id=103645&d=1710199076&type=thumb

[jimlosaltos]

Ruud takes the first set 6-2 against Arthur Fils. They showed a slow motion clip of Fils hitting a forehand; his grips seems very extreme.

Ruud just goes to work playing the percentages; solid. The sort of stuff that wins matches.

Surprisingly routine (to me at least) with Ruud not facing a single break point. Won 87.% of first serves on this slow surface. I didn't notice in Mexico that Ruud was significantly changing his tactics on hard courts to match the surface, presumably in prep for IW. I'd like to see him do well.

[stroke]

Laheka, who clearly goes to the the Fucsovic school of fitness, pretty much routines an out of sorts/no answers Tsitsipas.

[jimlosaltos]

Laheka, who clearly goes to the the Fucsovic school of fitness, pretty much routines an out of sorts/no answers Tsitsipas.

Does he offer correspondence corses? I'm in need

[jimlosaltos]

Sorry, posted the Djoko upset in real time BUT in the wrong thread. Could not read and click the microscopic forum links on my phone.

Meanwhile, here' a partial line score.

Twenty-year-old Italian Luca Nardi tore up the script becoming, at 123 in the world, the lowest ranked player ever to beat Djokovic in a big tournament, aka Masters 1000 or a Major, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. With most everyone expecting a patented Djokovic close out, Nardi hit 16 winners in the final set to only two (2) by the Serb, sealing the match out with his sixth ace.

ATP: Nardi wriggled out of 0/30 on his own serve to consolidate what proved to be the decisive break. "I don't know [how I held my nerve]," he said of the tense finish. "I think it is a miracle, because I am a 20-year-old guy, 100 in the world {Actually, 123}, and beating Novak. It's crazy."

If you're looking for reasons - From Fetterman at The Athletic: "“I made some really terrible unforced errors. Just quite defensive tennis and, you know, not much on the ball in the third, and that’s it.” Djokovic wasn’t wrong. So many times he has corralled a player like Nardi early on, like a cowboy throwing a rope around the neck of a wild horse, and steered him around the court all match long. Monday night, he barely made Nardi move on many points, allowing him to stand his ground in the middle of the court and whale away, sending Djokovic chasing balls that bounced in, then shot off the court. When Djokovic did try to move Nardi around, he missed his targets."

I'd add that historically, Djokovic has had more trouble in the wind than most of his near-peers. Serve misses its spots just enough and he lets up on the forehand IMHO.

Combine Djokovic's self-immolation with the withdrawal of Rafa and the top half of the draw is opened up. What will happen? Ruud is the top seed in the quarter, but hey we could have Monfils in the final. Wouldn't that be cool? Or maybe an all Italian Gen Z final with the lucky loser staying lucky all the way to meeting Jannik Sinner. Everyone loves a Cinderella or Cinderefella story.

filedata/fetch?id=103665&d=1710272980&type=thumb

[jimlosaltos]

Shelton vs Sinner could be a barn burner. I doubt that Ben is ready to end the hottest streak in tennis but, Hey, with his serve he's always got a puncher's chance.

filedata/fetch?id=103667&d=1710273372&type=thumb

[stroke]

Sorry, posted the Djoko upset in real time BUT in the wrong thread. Could not read and click the microscopic forum links on my phone.

Meanwhile, here' a partial line score.

Twenty-year-old Italian Luca Nardi tore up the script becoming, at 123 in the world, the lowest ranked player ever to beat Djokovic in a big tournament, aka Masters 1000 or a Major, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. With most everyone expecting a patented Djokovic close out, Nardi hit 16 winners in the final set to only two (2) by the Serb, sealing the match out with his sixth ace.

ATP: Nardi wriggled out of 0/30 on his own serve to consolidate what proved to be the decisive break. "I don't know [how I held my nerve]," he said of the tense finish. "I think it is a miracle, because I am a 20-year-old guy, 100 in the world {Actually, 123}, and beating Novak. It's crazy."

If you're looking for reasons - From Fetterman at The Athletic: "“I made some really terrible unforced errors. Just quite defensive tennis and, you know, not much on the ball in the third, and that’s it.” Djokovic wasn’t wrong. So many times he has corralled a player like Nardi early on, like a cowboy throwing a rope around the neck of a wild horse, and steered him around the court all match long. Monday night, he barely made Nardi move on many points, allowing him to stand his ground in the middle of the court and whale away, sending Djokovic chasing balls that bounced in, then shot off the court. When Djokovic did try to move Nardi around, he missed his targets."

I'd add that historically, Djokovic has had more trouble in the wind than most of his near-peers. Serve misses its spots just enough and he lets up on the forehand IMHO.

Combine Djokovic's self-immolation with the withdrawal of Rafa and the top half of the draw is opened up. What will happen? Ruud is the top seed in the quarter, but hey we could have Monfils in the final. Wouldn't that be cool? Or maybe an all Italian Gen Z final with the lucky loser staying lucky all the way to meeting Jannik Sinner. Everyone loves a Cinderella or Cinderefella story.

filedata/fetch?id=103665&d=1710272980&type=thumb

I would personally be shocked if charter member of the Lost Generation Monfils made the finals, but who knows. It is interesting to me to ponder how a young Monfils would fare now on the ATP without having to deal with Novak, Nadal, and Fed.

[jimlosaltos]

Laheka, who clearly goes to the the Fucsovic school of fitness, pretty much routines an out of sorts/no answers Tsitsipas.

Haven't watched yet but glancing on the match stats Tsitsipas got 44% of first serves in (28/63 in play)

Assuming they weren't playing in a tornado, that's horrible. Just as I said "He seems to be comfortable with the new stance" his serve goes away.

Stef had to play nearly 2x the second serve points of his opponent.

Guess I cursed him. Sigh.

[jimlosaltos]

Zverev v Demon starting. Irresistible force vs immovable object (that actually moves quite fast).
Could be good.