Australian Open

[jimlosaltos]

Hey he is 38 and looked tired and uninspired. Beyond that who knows.

"Uninspired" is a good word for it. Something was missing.

[jimlosaltos]

When was the last time you saw back-to-back come backs from down 2 sets to win in 5? Yes, it was one player in the semis, another in the finals, but still. 90% of five setters send with the player that would have won in 3 winning in 5 anyway.

A mile too far for Daniil Medvedev to win back-to-back five-set matches against two of the best players in tennis.
Kudos to Sinner.

Key stats - Sinner was tremendous behind his second serve against a very good returner, winning 54% behind his second.
Medy earned more break points -- 12 to 9 -- but few chances in the final two sets. And he dared to reach outside his comfort zone coming to the net over twice as much as sinner and winning 32 of 45 net points. Not enough
After 3 hour and 44 minutes, only one point separated the two.

As much skepticism as all of the tinkering Sinner {and presumably Darren Cahill} did with his serve during tournament play last year, it's paying off now -- particularly on the second.

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[stotty]

I didn't see the final but will watch the replay tonight. It sounds from the press reports that Meddy couldn't keep up his initial high level play, which Sinner couldn't cope with, and that he gradually ebbed away due to increasing fatigue.

Meddy'd 71% points won from the net is impressive since he's probably one of the worst volleyers on tour.

[stotty]

Well, I've watched the first two sets and I don't think I have ever seen Meddy play so aggressively. It's his backhand that has been making life really uncomfortable for Sinner so far. Towards the very end of the second set Sinner has started to find his game and was tantalisingly close to breaking Meddy to get back on serve. Meddy held...but only just.

Nick Kygrios is doing the commentary and doing it extremely well. Seems the bloke does have a brain after all, and his insights are both excellent and revealing.

[jimlosaltos]

Well, I've watched the first two sets and I don't think I have ever seen Meddy play so aggressively. It's his backhand that has been making life really uncomfortable for Sinner so far. Towards the very end of the second set Sinner has started to find his game and was tantalisingly close to breaking Meddy to get back on serve. Meddy held...but only just.

Nick Kygrios is doing the commentary and doing it extremely well. Seems the bloke does have a brain after all, and his insights are both excellent and revealing.

Medvedev has morphed from 'The Buy at the Back Wall' to a chameleon with more tactic changes & was to win than most.

Sinner has improved so much in the last year - serve, at the net, variety.

As for Kyrgios -- must be an impostor

[stotty]

Kyrgios says Meddy backhand is one of the toughest shots out there for players to deal with. It's a hard to do anything positive with it, he says, when you are on the receiving end because it shoots and stays so low. He also says Meddy's 'fast holds' are a nightmare. He can get through a service game in around minute so before you know it you are back on your own serve again, which is tough because Meddy returns so well. Meddy makes players feel rushed.

Player insights are always better (more real) than armchair observations.

[jimlosaltos]

Player insights are always better (more real) than armchair observations.

Agreed. Still, Kygios -- sure it wasn't a "deepfake"

[jimlosaltos]

Just how well is Jannik Sinner playing right now?

From Alex Ruskin Editor-in-Chief of Cracked Rackets:

Sinner’s held serve 91.1% of the time since Wimbledon. For context, John Isner’s career Hold % was 91.8% Sinner’s Break %: Just a casual 27.5%. FWIW Medvedev’s career avg is 27.3% So he’s serving like Isner + returning like Medvedev. That’s good…right?!

~~~~~~~

Sinner’s last three #AusOpen matches were against the World #5, #1, and number 3. He’s now 38-5 (.884) overall since Wimbledon. Has won 10 of his last 11 against the Top 5 + has gone a ridiculous 8-2 (!!!!) against Djokovic/Medvedev/Alcaraz during that stretch As good as it gets

~~~~~~~

From Jeff at Tennis Abstract:In more detail from Jeff at Tennis Abstract:

Blog: "Yes, Jannik Sinner is that Good"

https://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2024/01/29/yes-jannik-sinner-really-is-this-good/

"Starting the clock at Wimbledon might raise an eyebrow--is that just the line that spits out the most impressive number?--but it's a sensible way to divide the data. In June, not long before the Championships, Sinner rolled out a new, simplified service motion. While the measurements of the new delivery are not overwhelming--one more mile per hour, four centimeters closer to the line, a 0.7 percentage-point increase in first serves in--the results have been devastating. His serve has always been good; perhaps a few minor tweaks were all it took to make it great.

Winning how?

First, a bit of a puzzle. In the last 52 weeks, Sinner ranks fifth on tour in serve points won, with 68.3%.
~~~~~

Jeff goes on to point out that Jannik doesn't get many aces, his unreturned served number is good but not amazing either. Serve + 1 or won by 3 point? Also, good but not great.

Jeff: "Sinner, then, has the whole package, even if no single one of his weapons stands out like the Isner serve. He serves big enough to clean up 40% of points with his first or second shot. It the point lasts longer, he has probably hung on to more of an advantage than most players do: His heavy, deep groundstrokes see to that. In a really long rally, okay, maybe the edge goes to Medvedev or Alcaraz, but who else is going to outlast the Italian?"

And: "Fortunately, that's still exceptionally good. The 22-year-old serves like Jarry or Fritz while racking up as many return points as Djokovic. Take away the break point magic and you still have a contender for every slam. Sinner continues to lurk in fourth place in the official ATP rankings, but as of today, he is number one on the Elo list. Before long, those positions will converge, and it won't be because his Elo rating goes back down."

[jimlosaltos]

Here's the new ATP top 10, Aussie points applied.
Medy had a half a chance to become number one. Novak hangs on by a bit over Alcaraz. Despite having a disappointing AO premiere, Carlos had no points to defend there, so he gains 400 on Djokovic.

It will be interesting to see how many events Djokovic plays in 2024 with his focus on majors -- and the Olympics coming up. His 19 events in the trading year is already pretty low.

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[stotty]

Just how well is Jannik Sinner playing right now?

Jeff goes on to point out that Jannik doesn't get many aces...

Sorry, just to pick up on one of Kyrgios's comments during the final. He said Sinner has a good serve but most players find it very predictable and so he hits very few aces. He said he would benefit from becoming a spot server like Novak. Novak, he says, can hit all the spots and mixes it up well which makes him a very effective server despite not having a big serve. He insisted that Sinner is way too predictable. I agree. Kyrgios is gradually earning my respect.

As far as I can see he's not an impostor but with AI...who knows.

[stotty]

Another insight from Kyrgios is that he thought Meddy's tactics were good in going for Sinner's throat aggressively from the get-go. He said Sinner is otherwise very fast out of the blocks and comes at you straight away. Suffocating Sinner was a good move. This is different from when you play Rafa and Novak, he says, because they more gradually work their way into matches and prod opponents and ask questions first before going into any kind of overdrive.

[jimlosaltos]

Sorry, just to pick up on one of Kyrgios's comments during the final. He said Sinner has a good serve but most players find it very predictable and so he hits very few aces. He said he would benefit from becoming a spot server like Novak. Novak, he says, can hit all the spots and mixes it up well which makes him a very effective server despite not having a big serve. He insisted that Sinner is way too predictable. I agree. Kyrgios is gradually earning my respect.

As far as I can see he's not an impostor but with AI...who knows.

Here are the ATP/TDI stats on Sinner's service accuracy -- I believe that is measured as ave distance from sideline or service line is 58 cm of 1.9 feet, an improvement of 4 cm. But I don't see a definition on a quick look. I couldn't find a similar table for Djokovic. Their Infosys stat graphics generally draw a shaded line at 2 feet to highlight serve location.

But as Jeff S. pointed out, the key metric that is outstanding is "break points saved", where he is off the charts, 74% in this image from October, 71.7% as of now. Sinner' service velocity is higher on break points.

> "Sinner wins these matches by saving break points at a remarkable clip. While winning 68.3% of serve points overall, he has held off 71.7% of break chances, including 36 of 40 in Melbourne. No one else on tour tops 69%, and Hurkacz comes in at 65%. On average, top-50 men save break points two percentage points less than they win typical serve points (63.5% to 65.5%), mostly because stronger returners generate more break points."



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[stotty]

Here are the ATP/TDI stats on Sinner's service accuracy -- I believe that is measured as ave distance from sideline or service line is 58 cm of 1.9 feet, an improvement of 4 cm. But I don't see a definition on a quick look. I couldn't find a similar table for Djokovic. Their Infosys stat graphics generally draw a shaded line at 2 feet to highlight serve location.

But as Jeff S. pointed out, the key metric that is outstanding is "break points saved", where he is off the charts, 74% in this image from October, 71.7% as of now. Sinner' service velocity is higher on break points.

> "Sinner wins these matches by saving break points at a remarkable clip. While winning 68.3% of serve points overall, he has held off 71.7% of break chances, including 36 of 40 in Melbourne. No one else on tour tops 69%, and Hurkacz comes in at 65%. On average, top-50 men save break points two percentage points less than they win typical serve points (63.5% to 65.5%), mostly because stronger returners generate more break points."



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It will be interesting to see if those stats are still holding true in 5 years time. It's the long haul that really counts rather than what might be termed as a good run.

[jimlosaltos]

It will be interesting to see if those stats are still holding true in 5 years time. It's the long haul that really counts rather than what might be termed as a good run.

My guess, it's highly likely there will be some regression to the mean. In part, players/coaches see and adapt to what someone does. But his numbers will remain high.

On the other hand, since Sinner has only used version 3 of his serve for half a year, it might be even better with practice

[jimlosaltos]

Jeff Stackman of Tennis Abstract shows how Novak Djokovic is facing more long points, and losing more break points.

Yes, Djokovic had a wrist issue and possibly was fighting the flu in Melbourne, but this trend, if it is one, started last year. Previously, Djokovic had improved his 1st and then his 2nd serve to win points more quickly, and last year had amped up his forehand substantially -- seemingly redlining in the Tour Final's final to get only win in his last 4 matches with Sinner.

Now, he's being forced back into more long rallies and at 36 years old, winning fewer

Excerpt: "Djokovic fought out 53 points in his first-rounder against Prizmic that reached ten shots or more. The 18-year-old Croatian won 30 of them. Yeah, Prizmic is a rising star with mountains of potential, but he’s also ranked 169th in the world."

Eventually, time catches up with all of us. Like Mark Twain, the end of the career for each member of the Big 3 was incorrectly predicted many times.

Image from and stats by Jeff Stockman, Tennis Abstract, in "What is Going Wrong With Djokovic", with link at end of this post.

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Link to Heavy Topspin, The TennisAbstract Blog:

https://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2024/01/31/what-is-going-wrong-for-novak-djokovic/