Australian Open

[stotty]

Strange. Didn't see Meddy v Hurkacz but it's hard to imagine Meddy standing in to return that serve being as his forehand hasn't the preparation or mechanics to do that....that late preparation usually prevents him standing in the return big serves. I need to check that out on a replay!

[stotty]

The Telegraph calls it:

Australian Open’s lucky escape cannot cover up its absurd late-night habit

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/australian-open-late-sinner-rublev-djokovic-b2483398.html

Excerpt:
But will tennis learn its lesson? This is what the sport has become, at the request and enjoyment of no one. No other sport continues to play past the point of public transport ceasing to run, forcing paying spectators to leave their seats before the last train home. There are others, though, who don’t have a choice, from the ball-kids to the grounds staff, from the medical emergency teams through to the players. There were four men’s and women’s singles matches scheduled to be played on Tuesday, on the first of the quarter-final days, and yet the Australian Open still couldn’t find a way to finish its play at a reasonable time in the evening. “It’s definitely not fun for us,” Djokovic said.

I just wonder, in the case of Rafa and Novak (and others), just how long these matches would be if the stop clock was adhered to and potty breaks were got rid of.

[jimlosaltos]

I just wonder, in the case of Rafa and Novak (and others), just how long these matches would be if the stop clock was adhered to and potty breaks were got rid of.

Some one ( Tennis Abstract, perhaps?) tracked how matches at majors are progressively getting longer and longer.

Going back further, I recall during a US Open with McEnroe commentators saying that the shot clock did the opposite of what was intended. Most players served long before 20/25 seconds. But once the clock went in, most started taking their allotment.

Every other major sport is working to shorten games/matches -- MLB, NFL, NBA - while tennis matches get longer.

[jimlosaltos]

I was unable to watch also. I was checking the score here and there on my mobile phone and kind of assumed Alcaraz was injured or impaired to be getting beaten so easily. The last time I checked he was 2 sets down and 5-2. I stopped checking after that and was amazed at the scoreline when I checked later in the day.

It was a shame to lose Alcaraz. He's easily the most colourful player in the world to watch at the moment. I was really hoping he'd make the final.

Watched last night. My perception: Best I've seen Zverev play since his bad injury, I'd say first time he's gotten back to his old A game, but it was also about how passive Alcaraz was.

Yes, Zverev served extremely well in the first two sets, and I've never seen him cover the net this well. But Alcaraz seemed to be content for two sets to hit rally balls (yes, very heavy shots) but rally balls, while Zverev was almost always the first to pull the trigger, usually going DTL with pace and near the sideline.

When Alcaraz finally tried to be the offensive player I think of him as in the third set, he missed repeatedly. Also, if I'd never seen Alcaraz play before this match, I'd swear he was a heavy-handed big banger with no touch at all. Drop shots were terrible. Sliced forehand hit not as approach but attempted low-margin winner aimed at the sideline went out on key point. Very strange.

NOTE: This is perhaps Alcaraz's first match at a major without his coach Juan Carlos Ferrera, who is recovering from knee surgery. Ferrera coaches from the box more constantly than anyone I've seen, taking advantage of the new rule to an extreme. We're not talking father Tsitsipas's emotional harangue, but specific shot instruction nonstop. At USO Ferrera was literally "calling" every serve (presumably when Alcaraz was on his end) as if he was an NFL offensive coordinator. Was Alcaraz at sea, lost without him? Mere speculation but something was off.

Grabbed this straight off the TV, I believe at the end of second set? Not sure.

Anyway, Zverev was 18/19 at the net while Alcaraz was 9/22 on points behind his second serve, and a net -7 (15 winners less 22 UFEs).


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[stotty]

Some one ( Tennis Abstract, perhaps?) tracked how matches at majors are progressively getting longer and longer.

Going back further, I recall during a US Open with McEnroe commentators saying that the shot clock did the opposite of what was intended. Most players served long before 20/25 seconds. But once the clock went in, most started taking their allotment.

Every other major sport is working to shorten games/matches -- MLB, NFL, NBA - while tennis matches get longer.

I think the stop clock (let's give them 15 seconds) should start the moment a point finishes, regardless of where the players are positioned after the point finishes. So a player, say, after running for a drop shot, would have to trot to the service line or return position pretty darn quick ready to play. It would seriously speed matches up and encourage aggressive play.

Speeding the courts up a tad would help too.

[jimlosaltos]

No posts? I guess people are too tired from staying up late to watch the men's semis -- so I am compelled to fill the void.

Jannik Sinner's 6-1 6-2 6-7(6) 6-3 dethroning of Djokovic was pretty comprehensive. Only real blip was when Sinner went up in the third set tiebreak not once but twice and Djokovic still won.

Djokovic "served pants" to borrow Sir Andy's colorful phrase for two sets, then picked it up in the third. Not enough.

Most telling two stats IMHO are that Sinner won 63% on his second serve (29/46) vs only 45% (17-37) for Djokovic and Sinner won 83% behind his first serve to only 68% for Djokovic.

ATP: The Serbian, who committed 54 unforced errors, was shocked at how poor his level was during the three-hour, 26-minute semi-final clash.

“I was, in a way, shocked with my level, in a bad way,” Djokovic said in his post-match press conference. “There was not much I was doing right in the first two sets. I guess this is one of the worst Grand Slam matches I've ever played. At least that I remember.

Although Djokovic leads their H2H 4-3, Sinner has won 3 of their last 4 meetings over the last 3 months, all on semi-quick hard courts.

[jimlosaltos]

Daniil Medvedev came back from two sets down to defeat a resurgent Sasha Zverev, who had been the master of five setters.
5-7 3-6 7-6(4) 7-6 (5) 6-3

Medvedev: 'I'm capable of more than I thought'

“Mentally 100 per cent, I'm stronger than I was before this tournament because now I know that I'm capable of some things maybe I thought I'm not,” Medvedev said. “Because before I didn't do anything like this to get to the final.

Great timing, just before the semifinals -- Jeff Jackman of Tennis Abstract examined how and why Medy is so good at winning deciding sets.

How To Play One-Set Shootouts Like Daniil Medvedev

https://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2024/01/25/how-to-play-one-set-shootouts-like-daniil-medvedev/

"Except for the 2022 season, Medvedev has developed a knack for cleaning up close matches with everybody else:"

Excerpt:

"The final set shift

When a match is reduced to a one-set shootout, it becomes a bit less serve-centric. This is a persistent finding in all high-pressure situations, from tiebreaks to break points to fifth sets. Servers get a bit more cautious, returners heighten their focus, and quick points are harder to come by.

The effects are small but real. In the 1,200-plus men's deciding sets since 2017 logged by the Match Charting Project, servers win 1.1% fewer points in the final set that they did in the first two or four. They land fractionally more of their first serves, but only by increasing their margins: The percent of unreturned serves falls by more than 5%. The average rally increases from 4.1 strokes to 4.3.

There are two fundamental ways to benefit from those changes. First, you can buck the trend, continuing to serve big while your opponent succumbs to the natural tendency toward caution. That's part of the reason that John Isner and Roger Federer were two of the very few players to win more tiebreaks than expected over long periods of time. It's not easy, especially if fatigue is setting in. But if you can keep serving the way you did for two or four sets, you have a minor edge in the decider.

Second, you can be the type of player who excels in deciding-set-style tennis. ...

Evidence shows that Medvedev follows these prescriptions, maintaining his attack on serve while taking advantage of more cautious opponents. Other top players, to varying degrees, do the same.

~~~~~

The Russian, in line with Djokovic, Hurkacz, and Jannik Sinner, seems to take a few more chances in the shootout. Alcaraz defies gravity, serving more conservatively yet winning more points, and Zverev looks out of place, a caricature of prudence.

Now let's look at the percentage of serves that don't come back (Unret%), as well as the percent of service points won in three shots or less (SPW% <=3):

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[stotty]

No posts? I guess people are too tired from staying up late to watch the men's semis -- so I am compelled to fill the void.

Jannik Sinner's 6-1 6-2 6-7(6) 6-3 dethroning of Djokovic was pretty comprehensive. Only real blip was when Sinner went up in the third set tiebreak not once but twice and Djokovic still won.

Djokovic "served pants" to borrow Sir Andy's colorful phrase for two sets, then picked it up in the third. Not enough.

Most telling two stats IMHO are that Sinner won 63% on his second serve (29/46) vs only 45% (17-37) for Djokovic and Sinner won 83% behind his first serve to only 68% for Djokovic.

ATP: The Serbian, who committed 54 unforced errors, was shocked at how poor his level was during the three-hour, 26-minute semi-final clash.

“I was, in a way, shocked with my level, in a bad way,” Djokovic said in his post-match press conference. “There was not much I was doing right in the first two sets. I guess this is one of the worst Grand Slam matches I've ever played. At least that I remember.

Although Djokovic leads their H2H 4-3, Sinner has won 3 of their last 4 meetings over the last 3 months, all on semi-quick hard courts.

I saw neither match. The AO is not conducive to UK viewing as two thirds of it happens while we are asleep and the other third happens while we are having breakfast then skipping off to work. I tend to survive off highlights and getting up early for the more attractive matches.

Seems unthinkable that Novak would drop the first two sets so easily unless two things coincided; Novak played pants and Sinner played stunningly well.

As for Meddy, even at two sets down I wouldn't write him off against Zverez. Meddy hates losing to Zverez with a passion and is masterful at working his way back into matches.

I'm rooting for Sinner in the final. He's played so well, worked so hard, and seems humble enough to deserve it. Nothing like being humble when it comes to making oneself likeable.

[arturohernandez]

Just got to see the Shelton-Mannarino match. Mannarino completely dictated play, Shelton hit more slice backhands that he normally hits in a tournament. Seemingly every rally was played on Mannarino's terms. {and I wish autocorrect would stop turning his name into Mandarin <g> } Ben had no answer.

Biggest question for me is why Ben's serve that looks soooooo great isn't producing more results. Maybe Ben is mixing it up too much and should go Brad Gilbert style and just bomb away?

I wonder if it is to readable. The great servers can hit to any corner with the same toss. I remember a video a while back with Federer hitting the same spot with two serves that were overlayed on each other. Then one ball goes wide on the ad side and the other goes to the T. It is as if he is hitting the same serve and just twisting the racket face in slightly different directions. It is not until the last minute that the returner knows where the ball is going. With Shelton, he may be telegraphing his serve. So, it is big but readable.

Roddick had an equally big serve and Federer out aced him in the 2009 Wimbledon final.

[arturohernandez]

Agree on missing Barty.

High praise to liken Andreeva to Seles! One can hope she's that good.

A quote from Mirra Andreeva

"I feel like I'm a bit more mature."
You're only 16.
"Well, last year I was 15"

Interesting quote from Swiatek on 19 yo that upset her:

Iga on 19 yo Linda Noskova who upset her: “It was tough to read her serve. I would say she kind of serves Sabalenka's, Rybakina's style in terms of the placement and the speed,”

I have always felt that Ida's game is not efficient. She seems to herky jerky in my eyes. Without a smooth game, like Barty, she is unable to absorb and redirect power. I noticed how Sinner was doing this so nicely against Djokovic.

Iga will run into trouble with big hitters because she cannot out hit them. If she could smoothly redirect their power, then she would be able to withstand their attack.

Hitting big works until you face someone who hits bigger. Think of Federer against Blake a while back. Blake hit bigger than Federer but still could not beat him.

[arturohernandez]

No posts? I guess people are too tired from staying up late to watch the men's semis -- so I am compelled to fill the void.

Jannik Sinner's 6-1 6-2 6-7(6) 6-3 dethroning of Djokovic was pretty comprehensive. Only real blip was when Sinner went up in the third set tiebreak not once but twice and Djokovic still won.

Djokovic "served pants" to borrow Sir Andy's colorful phrase for two sets, then picked it up in the third. Not enough.

Most telling two stats IMHO are that Sinner won 63% on his second serve (29/46) vs only 45% (17-37) for Djokovic and Sinner won 83% behind his first serve to only 68% for Djokovic.

ATP: The Serbian, who committed 54 unforced errors, was shocked at how poor his level was during the three-hour, 26-minute semi-final clash.

“I was, in a way, shocked with my level, in a bad way,” Djokovic said in his post-match press conference. “There was not much I was doing right in the first two sets. I guess this is one of the worst Grand Slam matches I've ever played. At least that I remember.

Although Djokovic leads their H2H 4-3, Sinner has won 3 of their last 4 meetings over the last 3 months, all on semi-quick hard courts.

Okay, maybe I can once again predict Nole's decline. I stopped doing that because he kept defying the odds. It might be one bad match. But I just wonder if he knows that Sinner can outplay him. Kind of like Sampras who won the 2002 US Open and then retired. I don't see Djokovic playing without being top dog. I also think that movement means too much. He can try and be more aggressive but this will be tougher for him.

Of course, Sinner will not always be there but it might be that the young guard will start to lose their fear. As Johnny Mac once noted, in 1984 he would be up a set and break when he walked on the court. Then all of a sudden he was not.

It is not all of the sudden with Nole but I think this might be it. Sinner has his number.

Or wil Nole rebound like he did after his loss at Wimbledon last year?

The next months will be very interesting...

[johnyandell]

Hey he is 38 and looked tired and uninspired. Beyond that who knows.

[stotty]

I don't think it's the end for Novak. I think Rafa is right in that it has all become about records and making tennis history for Novak and that seems to be what's driving him at the moment. He has one more slam to get to get clear of Margaret Court's record and stand alone in that department, plus he would like an Olympic gold medal. Beyond that I am not sure what is left to achieve.

But let's not forget Rafa is still playing and, judging from his brief return, still looks a threat. I think Novak would like to be the last man standing of the Big 3 just to be sure Rafa doesn't do any sneaking up.

The good news is that Sinner and Alcaraz are the real deal and are looking equal the Novak or Rafa. It's been a long time coming but at last it looks like there will be great tennis to come beyond the Big 3, which is truly encouraging. Hopefully Rune will come good too.

[jimlosaltos]

Okay, maybe I can once again predict Nole's decline. I stopped doing that because he kept defying the odds. It might be one bad match. But I just wonder if he knows that Sinner can outplay him. Kind of like Sampras who won the 2002 US Open and then retired. I don't see Djokovic playing without being top dog. I also think that movement means too much. He can try and be more aggressive but this will be tougher for him.

Of course, Sinner will not always be there but it might be that the young guard will start to lose their fear. As Johnny Mac once noted, in 1984 he would be up a set and break when he walked on the court. Then all of a sudden he was not.

It is not all of the sudden with Nole but I think this might be it. Sinner has his number.

Or wil Nole rebound like he did after his loss at Wimbledon last year?

The next months will be very interesting...

Reminds me of the old saw that "The stock market <or use 'economists' instead> have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions." or perhaps Mark Twains, "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”

I don't know how much we can project from this result, because Djokovic's performance was so odd.

But it does show clearly how much more reliant his game has become on his serve as he has gotten older. Djokovic can't trap people in their backhand corner and grind them, because players such as Medvedev (US Open final) and Sinner have no fear of his backhand.

And at least 4 players in Sinner, Alcaraz, Rune and Medvedev have shown 1) They can beat Djokovic on a big stage and 2) All of them have games that can force Djokovic out of his favorite patterns of play. And now Sinner has beaten Djokovic in 3 of their last 4 meetings, all on Djokovic's best surface.

[jimlosaltos]

I don't think it's the end for Novak. I think Rafa is right in that it has all become about records and making tennis history for Novak and that seems to be what's driving him at the moment. He has one more slam to get to get clear of Margaret Court's record and stand alone in that department, plus he would like an Olympic gold medal. Beyond that I am not sure what is left to achieve.

But let's not forget Rafa is still playing and, judging from his brief return, still looks a threat. I think Novak would like to be the last man standing of the Big 3 just to be sure Rafa doesn't do any sneaking up.

The good news is that Sinner and Alcaraz are the real deal and are looking equal the Novak or Rafa. It's been a long time coming but at last it looks like there will be great tennis to come beyond the Big 3, which is truly encouraging. Hopefully Rune will come good too.

Don't forget that the Olympics this year will be on Roland Garros' clay, I believe.

The combination of Djokovic's "missing" Gold Medal and Rafa's return will make that potential confrontation extra juicy.