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Glad I don't bet.
Since we're doing projections, here's one that quite different from the punters'.
ELO projections for 2024 from Jeff Stockman at Tennis Abstract.
For anyone that is not familiar, Elo is the math model used to rank chess players, but can be applied anywhere. Ranking is doing a bit like tennis rankings in the old days, you ranked on the quality of your opponent. i.e. Beating Djokovic is worth more than beating a qualifier, etc.
In fairness, Jeff admits the range of outcomes in the projections are large. For Alcaraz, as an example, at 95% prediction interval, the top is world number one while the bottom is barely in the top 10.
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Paths to title for top seeds/ quarters and on, based on seed.
Let's see if I can type this without an egregious error.
Men's
Djokovic
Round 16: Shelton (that could be juicy)
QF: Tsitsipas ( iffy, given Stef's back)
SF: Sinner ( Jannik comes in winning 2/3 vs Nole on HCs at year's end)
Final: Alcaraz
Alcaraz
QF: Zverev
SF: Medvedev
Final: Djoko
Medvedev
SF: Rune
SF: Alcaraz
Final: Djokovic
Sinner
AF: Rublev
SF: Djokovic ( Upset alert ! )
Final: Alcaraz
Women's
Iga (never been to Aussie final!)
AF: Vondrousova
SF: Rybakina
Final: Sabalenka
Arnya (defending champ)
QF: Jabeur
SF: Gauff
Final: Świątek
Rybakina (last year's finalist )
QF: Pegula
SF: Swiatek
Final: Sabalenka
Coco (US Open winner)
AF: Sakkari
SF: Sabalenka
Final: Swiatek
#Comment
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Not necessarily all that easy for Novak with Murray, Wawrinka and Agut stacked in his quarter. All players he's had trouble with in the past although none are in the same form as in the past it has to be said. I always felt Wawrinka was a bigger threat to Novak than Rafa or Roger on a given day.StottyComment
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Tsitsipas vs Berrenttini and FAA vs Thiem 1st round.Comment
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Positive CNN feature on Ben Shelton.
“He could cut his ranking in half,” tennis coach and broadcaster Brad Gilbert recently told CNN, “and I think he’s going to be the first American [man] potentially to win a slam since Andy Roddick.”
On the other hand, he just lost to Toro Daniel in straight sets. Couldn't convert any of 3 BPs and lost a tiebreak.
Jeff Sackman of Tennis Abstract analyses Ben's return game, asking if it is good enough.
"In 33 years, out of 330 top-ten finishes, only one man has reached the threshold with a RPW% lower than Shelton’s last year. And it’s someone you can’t exactly pattern a career after: If you look up “outlier” in the dictionary, you find John Isner’s face staring back at you.Comment
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3 from the Walking Wounded battalion. Should have swapped Wawrinka for FAA to make it a quartet.Originally posted by stroke View Post
An injured back, two wrists, and some ankles.
This is from Stan's IG post in November. Three knee surgeries (I am guessing one a regenerative surgery) and now this perhaps ankle?
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This gallery has 1 photos.Comment
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For your convenience:
The Australian Open's main draw starts tomorrow (Aussie time). Some links for coverage on ESPN, ESPN+, ESPN2, and in Spanish, ESPN Desportes, as well as the Tennis Channel.
ESPN calendar set to women's final on Saturday, Jan 27
ESPN calendar set to men's final on Sunday, Jan 28
ESPN calendar set to Jan 13, first day of main draw
Link from AO web site to ESPN list here.
Tennis Channel:
List of other broadcasters:
Reminder:
Melbourne VIC, Australia is 19 hours ahead of California
8:09 AM Saturday, in Melbourne VIC, Australia is
1:09 PM Friday, in California
Melbourne VIC, Australia is 11 hours ahead of London, UK
8:11 AM Saturday, in Melbourne VIC, Australia is
9:11 PM Friday, in London, UKComment
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Australian Open order of play - Sunday 14 January
(all times UK / GMT)
Rod Laver Arena
From 1am
Jannik Sinner vs Botic van de Zandschulp
Maria Sakkari vs Nao Hibino
From 8am
Novak Djokovic vs Dino Prizmic
Aryna Sabalenka vs Ella Seidel
Margaret Court Arena
From 1am
Mai Hontama vs Barbora Krejcikova
Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Andrey Rublev
From 8am
Magda Linette vs Caroline Wozniacki
Frances Tiafoe vs Borna Coric
John Cain Arena
From 1am
Leylah Fernandez vs Sara Bejlek
Dane Sweeny vs Francisco Cerundolo
From 8am
Taylor Fritz vs Facundo Diaz Acosta
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Carlos Alcaraz will be playing in his first ever Australian Open without his coach because "Ferrero is not in Melbourne as he is recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his left knee."
Does it matter? Alcaraz seems to really more on hiComment
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Some interesting comments from Bill Simons on AO:
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Quite the crowd and atmosphere for Novak's 1st round mstch vs 18 year old Prizmic.Comment
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Novak wins in 4 sets, in just over 4 hours. The young Croatian Prizmic really competed well, very impressive. Fritz was fortunate to get through his match in 5, same for Rublev. Tiafoe in a tough match vs Coric right now. Berrenttini withdraws from tournament with a foot injury.Comment
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Some quick notes:
Djokovic: “I started off very well for a 36-year-old guy,” the world No.1 joked afterwards. “Jeez, when you think about it, I’m double his age.
Loads of long matches for the first round of a major. Djokovic pushed to four sets in over 4 hours by an 18 yo qualifier (Note: The AO site actually has the wrong, incomplete score for this match. Go figure}. Rublev needed a fifth set tiebreak that went 10-6 to top T. Seyboth Wild, Fernando Cerundolo needed his own 5 sets to top a qualifier, D. Sweeny. Christopher O'Connell a 29 yo Australian journeyman needed 5 also, over Christian Garin. Ditto Galan over Kubler. And Taylor Fritz over world 93 Facundo Diaz Acosta.
Some very positive news from players that won in straights: Amanda Anisimova, the once teen prodigy who has barely played for some time for a variety of reasons, took out number 13 Samsonova. Wonderful to see Amanda back. Hard to believe Leylah Fernandez is only 21 yo, since we've been hearing about her since her great run to the "Upstart Final" at the US Open with Emma Raducanu, looked solid in straight sets over 17 yo Sara Bejlek. Caroline Wozniaki made good use of her maternity-leave wild card, 2 and love over number 13 seed, Magda Linette.Comment
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Brad Gilbert called in Andy Roddick to help tweak Coco Gauff's serve.
“I coached Andy at a young age. He’s got an amazing serve. And I was thinking, ‘what a great person to take a look at Coco’s serve,’” said Gilbert ahead of Novak Djokovic’s opener with 18-year-old Dino Prizmic.
He continued, “It’s kind of full circle. When I coached Andy, I was his age now. Andy was like Coco’s age. It was a great two days. Really helped things out, simplified Coco’s motion, abbreviated a little bit.”
Coco: “It only took me, like, two days—maybe three—to get really comfortable with it,” she said. “It was just to make the toss more consistent. Instead of throwing from so low to start up higher to make the toss more consistent.”
Tennis.com
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