2023 Shot Quality List

[stroke]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZUDw7XjiBvwTDv9G9

[jimlosaltos]

Seems a bit incongruous that the top two players at actually winning their service games aren't in the top 10 as servers.

Yes, there is a lot more to winning your service than the serve. But I find it hard to believe that neither ranks in the top 10.
Three images

1) First one of the TDI graphics stroke posted via Google cloud link:

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2) Next, the top three players at winning service games.

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3) ATP Top 10 at service games won.
Again, Stef and Novak at the top. Nowhere in sight are "Top Servers" Harris, TK3, Eubanks, Halys.

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#

[stroke]

Yes Jim, I think this Shot Quality Ranking may just be simply the speed, spin, and placement of the serve. Extreme example, Isner and Novak, once a rally is underway. Novak is so solid on everything after the serve if a rally actually happens, well all his metrics look very good.

[stroke]

I too have questions about the Shot Quality Serve rankings I posted. Hard to believe Sheldon should not be in the top 5, and he is not even in the top 10. That being said, whatever metrics they are using on these rankings, they must be on to something as I certainly don't have any qualms with the rankings on the forehand, backhand, and return of serve. Only one 1 handed backhand in the top 10, to no surprise. It would have been very interesting to see where Fed and Nadal would have been in this Shot Quality rankings.

[jimlosaltos]

Yes Jim, I think this Shot Quality Ranking may just be simply the speed, spin, and placement of the serve. Extreme example, Isner and Novak, once a rally is underway. Novak is so solid on everything after the serve if a rally actually happens, well all his metrics look very good.

Updated: Now that the forum is letting me edit again

I agree on backing up the serve -- but still question the ranking.

TDI seems to have two, different metrics"Shot Quality Ranking" and "<shot name> Effectiveness". I believe you're correct that the "Quality" metric only uses data on the path of the ball, not the end result -- with the exception of "unreturned" serves. Shame "Effectiveness" isn't included - much as various NFL quarterback rankings use actual results.

Hurk's "Quality"

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Ben's "Effectiveness"

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This graphic I posted some time back is a little hard to read with all that is going on, but the bars show that shot "Effectiveness" purports to take into account all results from the shot, in this case Shelton's serve. So, it measures not just Aces and unreturned serves, but serves that put the server in an attacking position (presumably serve +1 etc), neutral returns, serves that yield returns putting the server on defense, and return winners. What I can't find is the magic formula for how those are weighted.

Ben first serve per the image yields:

• Aces 18.9%
• Unreturned 27.8% {apparently not incl aces?}
• Attack (able returns) 20.8%
• Neutral returns 28.7%
• Defense (returns that put Ben on defense) 2.5%
• Winner (by returner) 1.3%

If my back of envelope match works & we're lucky that's 100%

Still, it's great that the ATP is finally sharing this data. Even a year ago it was difficult to simply find "unreturned serves". So, the glass is half full and the ATP is still pouring

TDi /ATP graphic & statistics

[jimlosaltos]

I too have questions about the Shot Quality Serve rankings I posted. Hard to believe Sheldon should not be in the top 5, and he is not even in the top 10. That being said, whatever metrics they are using on these rankings, they must be on to something as I certainly don't have any qualms with the rankings on the forehand, backhand, and return of serve. Only one 1 handed backhand in the top 10, to no surprise. It would have been very interesting to see where Fed and Nadal would have been in this Shot Quality rankings.

You made me curious, so I checked the ATP site. It has for some time ranked serves by a yet another mix of stats (the formula not revealed as best I can tell) that seems to be more results/ points oriented. There, the top 3 in games won are the top 3 in results in slightly different order (screen cap below). Hubi, Stef & Djokovic. Ben is down at 12.

More than you want but perhaps some of interest --

Sorting that list by "First serve points won", Ben is "only 14th in the world.
Sorting by "Service games won" Ben is 13th.
As with so many numbers for the top of the ATP, the differences are eyelash thin - Hubi wins 88% of his service games, Ben "only" 85%.

From the "Serve Effectiveness" graphic, Ben appears to have 46.7% unreturned serves (18.9 + 27.8, I presume, it's ambiguous) plus he is "on attack" in another 20.8%, so my guess is something is going wrong to keep Ben from getting his share in the roughly 30% of good returns that do come back. If he dials back on some overhits on midcourt balls, he could be in the top 5 in a hurry IMHO.

So, sort the service leaderboard again, this time on "2nd Serve Points won" and Ben goes way down to #32 - which is presumably how he is performing against the 30% of good returns vs his first serve, dragging down his overall service rank?

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