ATP Finals

[jimlosaltos]

Belated stats, given the ATP site's continual outages during the tournament.

ATP's Tennis Data Innovations calculates that Djokovic achieved the highest overall performance ratings of any match played in 2023.

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Djokovic's surprising answer on Sunday was to go hyper-offensive. Result: Djokovic won 91% of points behind his first serve and averaged a stunning 86 MPH on his forehand in the first four games. Sinner was pushed around, couldn't get his own power game going and never broke Djokovic. The Serb hit more forehands, and hit them more ferociously than I've even seen him do for a sustained period. Djokovic only faced two break points, defending both, and only needed to win 9 points behind his second serve in the entire match.

One key was that Djokovic hit 13 aces in 9 service games or nearly 1.5 aces per game against a pretty good returner. That's like starting games with alternate 15-love, and 30-love handicaps. Heck, even I could win games on tour with that kind of handicap! (Oh, ok maybe not me .... ).

Braingame counted:

Djokovic Groundstrokes (excluding returns, volleys & overheads)
• Forehands = 101 (3 winners/11 errors/extracted 22 errors from Sinner)
• Backhands = 76 (1 winner/8 errors/extracted 10 errors from Sinner)


Average Forehand Groundstroke Speed (First Four Games)
• Djokovic = 138 km/h (86 mph)
• Sinner = 119 km/h (74 mph)

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[stroke]

Belated stats, given the ATP site's continual outages during the tournament.

ATP's Tennis Data Innovations calculates that Djokovic achieved the highest overall performance ratings of any match played in 2023.

filedata/fetch?id=102737&d=1700506616&type=thumb

Djokovic's surprising answer on Sunday was to go hyper-offensive. Result: Djokovic won 91% of points behind his first serve and averaged a stunning 86 MPH on his forehand in the first four games. Sinner was pushed around, couldn't get his own power game going and never broke Djokovic. The Serb hit more forehands, and hit them more ferociously than I've even seen him do for a sustained period. Djokovic only faced two break points, defending both, and only needed to win 9 points behind his second serve in the entire match.

One key was that Djokovic hit 13 aces in 9 service games or nearly 1.5 aces per game against a pretty good returner. That's like starting games with alternate 15-love, and 30-love handicaps. Heck, even I could win games on tour with that kind of handicap! (Oh, ok maybe not me .... ).

Braingame counted:

Djokovic Groundstrokes (excluding returns, volleys & overheads)
• Forehands = 101 (3 winners/11 errors/extracted 22 errors from Sinner)
• Backhands = 76 (1 winner/8 errors/extracted 10 errors from Sinner)


Average Forehand Groundstroke Speed (First Four Games)
• Djokovic = 138 km/h (86 mph)
• Sinner = 119 km/h (74 mph)

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Yes I think I had previously posted those numbers is this thread and another, but the quantitative numbers are super impressive.

[jimlosaltos]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughcl...droid&r=1t7zzc

Good article. Clarke's material consistency has interesting analysis.

And, yes, he included Tennis TV screen caps I shared. But mine were easier to see here <g>.

One thing I would like to have compared is the serve location of each player. Clarke has Novak's but not SInner's. Unfortunately, the ATP web site failures mean we can't pull that from 'second screen'. What we'd seen in prior matches is that while what I'll call "Version 3" of Sinner's serve, gives his good velocity and variety. he doesn't get many close to the lines and some are downright short in the box.

Djokovic's serve placement is, dare I say it, starting to look in his later years positively "Federesque".

[stotty]

Djokovic's serve placement is, dare I say it, starting to look in his later years positively "Federesque".

His serve just gets better and better in terms of variation and placement. His serving in the first set and a half was spotless. It just goes to show that spin and placement can work just as well as brute force - in fact, in my opinion, spin and placement can be even more dismantling.

His game has development beautifully in others aspects too. His forehand is better than ever. He hit one forehand at around 100mph from behind the baseline that even Roger would have tipped his hat to.

I bet Sinner half wishes he'd dumped Novak out of the event when he had the chance against Rune.

[jimlosaltos]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughcl...droid&r=1t7zzc

I originally posted this in the two-hander thread, but might be worthwhile here. It's from our Tour Portrait of Jannik Sinner from Indian Wells. images (c)jfawcette

In this sequence I took at Indian Wells, Sinner does not appear to this weekend hacker to roll his wrist over in the fashion shown by Clarke on a low backhand.
Sinner's wrist appears "locked" around contact to me, unless I'm misunderstanding that.

So, that may vary with the type of shot?

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[jimlosaltos]

I find these comments by Djokovic's uber-coach Ivanesivic interesting:

“It’s not easy to deal with him when he's losing the match. On Tuesday night, he finished late. On Wednesday we didn't see him at all. Until Thursday we didn't know what's happening, to be honest,” Ivanisevic said. “We were in the room. We didn't know if we are going home, if we are going to the warm-up against Hurkacz. We were sitting, sitting. We finally find out that he's going to play.”

Djokovic found imperious form in the knockout stage. He did not lose serve against Alcaraz or Sinner, saving all six break points he faced against them combined. According to Ivanisevic, the 98-time tour-level champion is always on the quest for a higher level.

“It's very tough to improve with him,” Ivanisevic said, cracking a smile. “But he wants to improve. That's the good thing and bad thing for me as a coach and the rest of the team. I think he improved a lot his volleys, his game at the net, and his position at the net. Now when he comes to the net — OK, today he missed some easy volleys — but generally this week and this year he plays some amazing volleys.

“His position at the net is a lot better. It’s very tough to pass him. Before he was very easy to pass. Now he knows what he's doing at the net. He's comfortable at the net. In the final of the US Open he played two, three [very] important volleys against Medvedev. He's not afraid to come to the net. He's hitting the forehands much, much harder. He's going for the shots. Serving, I think second serve, sometimes he's hitting over 200 [kph]. He's just going for it.”

[stotty]

I find these comments by Djokovic's uber-coach Ivanesivic interesting:

“It’s not easy to deal with him when he's losing the match. On Tuesday night, he finished late. On Wednesday we didn't see him at all. Until Thursday we didn't know what's happening, to be honest,” Ivanisevic said. “We were in the room. We didn't know if we are going home, if we are going to the warm-up against Hurkacz. We were sitting, sitting. We finally find out that he's going to play.”

Djokovic found imperious form in the knockout stage. He did not lose serve against Alcaraz or Sinner, saving all six break points he faced against them combined. According to Ivanisevic, the 98-time tour-level champion is always on the quest for a higher level.

“It's very tough to improve with him,” Ivanisevic said, cracking a smile. “But he wants to improve. That's the good thing and bad thing for me as a coach and the rest of the team. I think he improved a lot his volleys, his game at the net, and his position at the net. Now when he comes to the net — OK, today he missed some easy volleys — but generally this week and this year he plays some amazing volleys.

“His position at the net is a lot better. It’s very tough to pass him. Before he was very easy to pass. Now he knows what he's doing at the net. He's comfortable at the net. In the final of the US Open he played two, three [very] important volleys against Medvedev. He's not afraid to come to the net. He's hitting the forehands much, much harder. He's going for the shots. Serving, I think second serve, sometimes he's hitting over 200 [kph]. He's just going for it.”

It's great to get and inside seat through someone like Goran, who only knows how to be honest.

Novak's low volleys could definitely get better but that might be difficult as he doesn't have great hand skills - so can only volley in straight lines. Still, with application....

[jimlosaltos]

It's great to get and inside seat through someone like Goran, who only knows how to be honest.

Novak's low volleys could definitely get better but that might be difficult as he doesn't have great hand skills - so can only volley in straight lines. Still, with application....

Please, don't encourage him !

If Novak gets a Golden Slam in 2026, he'll be insufferable (er).

[jimlosaltos]

Rewatched the Turin / Torino finals via Tennis TV's "Condensed" replay.

I wish Tennis TV did this for every big match, both for rewatching but also because there isn't enough time in the day to watch every match.

A few thoughts: Djokovic's aggression from the onset was even more impressive the second time around. I had forgotten how Sinner made a good push to come back mid-second set, while Novak missed a few of his "boogey men" shots" -- butchering an overhead and a low volley. I don't believe I've ever seen Djokovic serve this well.

Also, the condensed format made me think how much time is actually spent striking the ball during a match. I have a vague and not-wholly-reliable memory of someone calculating that at 17 minutes in a 3 set match. The Tennis TV vid was 31 minutes long to cover every point in the 1 hour and 43 minute match, with extra minutes at beginning and end, plus some replays, plus some environmental shots (coaches, crowd) so perhaps 17 minutes of actual tennis?

I found myself thinking that if Sinner had come out as hot as Djokovic did, that Novak would have unleashed every stall tactic in the book. We'd have endured an 18 minute break to treat a potentially fatal hang-nail, or some such. But Sinner is either too good a sport to do that, or too young and naive.

I do think pro tennis would survive if it actually enforced the 20/25 second clocks and new-trial 8 second second serve clock.

I also think that medical time outs, and bathroom breaks should be replaced with 2 discretionary time outs of no more than 3 minutes. Use them for whatever / whenever but turn the clock on and enforce it.

Onward to 2024.

[jimlosaltos]

Maybe Stefanos Tsitsipas was right when he said getting an ATP Tour Final title was bigger than winning a slam?
Of course, he's say that since he has one of those and none of the others.

But, assuming pay has any correlation with value, Novak Djokovic just won $4,411,000 -- over $4 Million dollars -- for 5 matches in Turin, of which he only won four (4).

That's more than he won at any of his 3 'Slam titles this year. In fact, 5 players at the Tour Finals won over $1 Million.
At Wimbledon, Carlos Alcaraz had to win 6 best of 5 set matches for roughly 40% less prize money. As always, math I do in my head comes with no guarantee.
Djokovic won less than half as much money when he took the title in Melbourne. And think of the difference in air fare <g>

Jannik Sinner earned $2,600,500 as runner up. That's more than the Australian Open paid the winner, and almost equal to the Wimbledon and French Open top prize.

"Slam Prize Money

US Open singles - $3,000,000
Wimbledon - $2,741,726
Roland Garros - $2.7 Million US
Australian Open - $2,071,000 US

[stotty]

I originally posted this in the two-hander thread, but might be worthwhile here. It's from our Tour Portrait of Jannik Sinner from Indian Wells. images (c)jfawcette

In this sequence I took at Indian Wells, Sinner does not appear to this weekend hacker to roll his wrist over in the fashion shown by Clarke on a low backhand.
Sinner's wrist appears "locked" around contact to me, unless I'm misunderstanding that.

So, that may vary with the type of shot?

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I think it's a different shot to the one Hugh is alluding to in his article. Here Sinner is 'bracing'.

In Hugh's clip Novak is attacking down the line. I think John is right in the sense that it isn't an exact comparison with regard to Sinner and Novak. Sinner is sitting back a little on his backhand it seems whereas Novak is throwing his full weight behind his. The circumstances are different.

It isn't just Novak's wrist locking either. He is straightening and fixing the whole arm it seems, much like Mecir used to with his down the line backhands.

[don_budge]

Novak Djokovic in TOTAL CONTROL...

Stay tuned in TRADITIONAL THOUGHTS for my thoughts on Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner.

[jimlosaltos]

I think it's a different shot to the one Hugh is alluding to in his article. Here Sinner is 'bracing'.

In Hugh's clip Novak is attacking down the line. I think John is right in the sense that it isn't an exact comparison with regard to Sinner and Novak. Sinner is sitting back a little on his backhand it seems whereas Novak is throwing his full weight behind his. The circumstances are different.

It isn't just Novak's wrist locking either. He is straightening and fixing the whole arm it seems, much like Mecir used to with his down the line backhands.

Better said than I could have, but that was what I was trying to get at.

Coming over so severely with the top hand is one of Sinner's backhands, not "his backhand". I thought in the Clark shot, as I recall, that Sinner was hitting a lower ball than Djokovic (aggravated by Sinner being taller, despite the ATP listings), and needing to get the ball up-and-down.

Here's another from Indian Wells (c)me where Sinner was jumping up and into a ball a high ball, and teeing off cross-court, so the strong off hand brings the ball down.

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[jimlosaltos]

This is Sinner celebrating the ATP Tour Finals with his team.

So many people. I can't think of enough job titles for a player's team to cover all of them <g>

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