ATP Finals

[stotty]

Sinner grabs the first set with some astoundingly huge hitting. Let's see how Novak responds who hasn't been hitting the ball too badly either.

[jimlosaltos]

Curious stats. Both players about 58% unreturned serves so far ( fits with Alcaraz complaint that these are the fastest courts on tour all year).

But Sinner "Return" composite is twice that of Djokovic (120 to 60). Not sure what the high difference is based on.

ATP Stats on stroke speeds etc. at 3-3 in the second set.

Velocities are about identical BUT Sinner's RPM are 300-400 turns greater than Novak's

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[jimlosaltos]

Djokovic down a mini-break in second set TB, takes 2 when Sinner misses back-to-back first serves.

Players averaging more than an ace per game combined.

[jimlosaltos]

Well that was something. Sinner picks a good time to win his first match over Djokovic.

Will we see a rematch this Sunday in the final?

Couldn't be much closer: 109 to 109 total points won.

Novak gets the green check in every serving column except way down at the bottom 1/3 BPs saved vs 2/3 BPs saved.

Feisty crowd booed Novak off the court was he waved his hands as if conducting them.

Again, more evidence that Alcaraz's claim the courts are the fastest he's seen on tour all year -- 20 aces for Novak, 15 for Sinner

Almost 1 ace per game being averaged at this event ( 35 aces in 36 service games for this round robin match).

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Mr. Automatic Tiebreak lockdown mode THIS

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[jimlosaltos]

Djokovic picked up his groundstroke velocity in the third set and ended up edging Sinner there,
but Sinner had a 300-450 RPM advantage in spin.

More evidence of how Djokovic's game has changed. Novak won the 0-4 shot rallies but lost
the longer rallies to the young Italian: 42 to 37.

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[jimlosaltos]

Just for amusement or whatever, this match must have generated some interest - ATP site was out for a good while per cloud provider Cloudfare

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[jimlosaltos]

ATP's Tennis Insight's newish stats say this was a very high quality match.

Djokovic's top-shelf serve ( 9.3 vs 8.7 for the Italian) met a good return and better groundstrokes -- including on Novak revered backhand.

In fact, biggest difference between the ratings for any of the shots other than serve, is Sinner's 0.4 advantage over Novak's backhand.

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[stroke]

No doubt a very high quality match. That kind of quality is all it takes to edge Novak in a big match.

[stotty]

There was very little in the Novak v Sinner match. To be honest, once Novak became entrenched behind his serve, which he is so good at, I couldn't see him losing, but lost he did. As always the stats can show a lot but never the little bits that divide players at a human level. Sinner was just that bit braver and, amazingly, didn't choke. Novak was a little cautious on a few vital forehands whereas most of his forehands he'd been smoking harder than ever before. Stats don't show bravery nor the odd slippage in power and nerve.

Sinner played the best and bravest match of his career so far. It was beautiful to watch...from both players.

[stroke]

There was very little in the Novak v Sinner match. To be honest, once Novak became entrenched behind his serve, which he is so good at, I couldn't see him losing, but lost he did. As always the stats can show a lot but never the little bits that divide players at a human level. Sinner was just that bit braver and, amazingly, didn't choke. Novak was a little cautious on a few vital forehands whereas most of his forehands he'd been smoking harder than ever before. Stats don't show bravery nor the odd slippage in power and nerve.

Sinner played the best and bravest match of his career so far. It was beautiful to watch...from both players.

Certainly agree with that. To truly see all that goes on in a match, all the nuances, one just has to watch the whole match. I love the stat resume of the players though. A lot of good stuff there.

[jimlosaltos]

Here's a take this morning by Craig O'Shannesy of Braingame. First, he says that Djokovic hit too many cross court backhands and as part of that didn't go after Sinner's running forehand, where he can often mishit, enough. But then this:

"3: Forehand Volley Errors

"Both players missed crucial forehand volleys but performed better with their backhand volley. The reason is that Djokovic and Sinner were not “clicking” their grip far enough to use a true continental grip after the approach shot. When the ball was hit hard to their forehand volley, it went in the net because the grip was wrong. Remember, it’s best to change grips with your opposite hand (left hand) up on the throat of the racket.

"Even the best players in the world have small holes in their game, and both players missed forehand volleys in the net for this exact reason last night.

I'd add that Sinner 1) Often won the battle to control the baseline, often pushing Djokovic back 2) Seemed to deliberately draw Djokovic in, knowing a pass is easier against him than drawing a baseline error.

Link:

https://www.braingametennis.com/sinner-d-djokovic-in-atp-finals-5-things-to-know-why/?mc_cid=8c58366b1d&mc_eid=56c87aa1fa

[jimlosaltos]

Where do we go from here? This is a round robin. Sinner has already earned at least a semifinal slot in the knock-out round but Novak still has to qualify. But here's an odd twist, since Stefanos Tsitsipas had to retire vs Holger Rune with a "severely painful back injury", alternate Hubert Hurkacz steps in. I believe Novak will have to face the tall Pole who presents a bigger challenge, with his great serve on this fast court, than Tsitsipas would have. Remember, the Djoko-Hurkaz Wimbledon match? Now imagine if Hurk is hitting the serve that well, but on this court.

Meanwhile in the Red Group, Alcaraz had a good win over Rublev this morning, eliminating the no flag, putting Alcaraz at 1-1, while Medvedev, and Zverev who meet tonight, I believe, are each 1-0.

Group Standings:

https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current/nitto-atp-finals/605/group-standings

[stroke]

Here's a take this morning by Craig O'Shannesy of Braingame. First, he says that Djokovic hit too many cross court backhands and as part of that didn't go after Sinner's running forehand, where he can often mishit, enough. But then this:

"3: Forehand Volley Errors

"Both players missed crucial forehand volleys but performed better with their backhand volley. The reason is that Djokovic and Sinner were not “clicking” their grip far enough to use a true continental grip after the approach shot. When the ball was hit hard to their forehand volley, it went in the net because the grip was wrong. Remember, it’s best to change grips with your opposite hand (left hand) up on the throat of the racket.

"Even the best players in the world have small holes in their game, and both players missed forehand volleys in the net for this exact reason last night.

I'd add that Sinner 1) Often won the battle to control the baseline, often pushing Djokovic back 2) Seemed to deliberately draw Djokovic in, knowing a pass is easier against him than drawing a baseline error.

Link:

https://www.braingametennis.com/sinner-d-djokovic-in-atp-finals-5-things-to-know-why/?mc_cid=8c58366b1d&mc_eid=56c87aa1fa

There is no question in my mind Sinner and Novak are in very weak continental grip on their forehand volleys, as are most of the players out there it seems, even Nadal (Zverev, Med, Tsitsipas, Rublev, etc). Not Hurkacz, Evans, Dimitrov and Cressy though. I would not blame the off hand as the culprit. It is just the grip they use.

[stotty]

Here's a take this morning by Craig O'Shannesy of Braingame. First, he says that Djokovic hit too many cross court backhands and as part of that didn't go after Sinner's running forehand, where he can often mishit, enough.

True. Very noticeable how few backhands down the line Novak has employed this tournament. His match with Rune followed a similar pattern. Surprising considering it's his trademark shot and one that has been decisive throughout his career. It's a confidence shot, though, whoever is playing it, so perhaps that is saying something in itself.

Full credit to Sinner. The only way to beat Novak when he locks down is to be brave and seize the day and the moment. He did that beautifully.

[stotty]

I believe Novak will have to face the tall Pole who presents a bigger challenge, with his great serve on this fast court, than Tsitsipas would have. Remember, the Djoko-Hurkaz Wimbledon match? Now imagine if Hurk is hitting the serve that well, but on this court.

My thoughts exactly. Novak won't be so happy with the swap. Not sure Hurkacz has a strong enough nerve, though. He choked at SW19.