Rogers Cup, ATP Toronto

[stroke]

Monfils, who has never won a Masters 1000 of course, is only a solid underdog vs Sinner. Odds show Sinner at only a 75% implied probability of winning. Seems optimistic odds for Monfils to me.

[jimlosaltos]

Being number 1 a very tough ask. One has to have pretty much all the tools to stay there for a significant stint. Carlos seems to have the tools.

Agreed. And the drive, the mental toughness, and support team.

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Carlos is an absolute dogfight with Paul. Sinner vs Monfils to come. To all who are concerned with the state of ATP tennis post the 3, tonight is a sale out.

[stroke]

Agreed. And the drive, the mental toughness, and support team.

https://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/record?recordId=WeeksAtATPNo1

I did not remember that Rafter only had 1 week at number 1. Carlos is already in great company.

[stroke]

Superb win by Paul. It was all him. Carlos fought very hard, but Paul took it. That is just the depth of ATP tennis.

[don_budge]

Match of the Day...2023 Roger's Cup...ATP 1000...Toronto, Canada

Alcaraz vs. Hurkacz: From one raz to another kaz, I think that mobility is the big issue here. Firepower is even up or even a nod to RAZ over KACZ. It all comes down to moving the feet and there isn't anyone on tour moving better than Alcaraz.

Paul vs. Giron: Fascinating matchup...at least on paper. The actual play will be less than scintilating. Although Paul might surprise. I like the service motion better than most. But Giron has beaten Paul three of the four times they have played. Paul currently ranked a breath taking high in the stratosphere 15 and Giron lingering on at 70. Both Americans have won two matches against competent opponents which is another facet of interest. Paul defeating Schwartzman and number 22 ranked Cerundolo. Giron having both Ruusuvuori and Holger Rune under his belt. The Fin ranked 54 and Rune ranked a lofty 6. Fascinating matchup...but I already said that. Didn't I?

Monfils vs. Vukic: Discussed in another thread. Monfils ranked 200 and something while up and coming Vukic is at number 62. Lots of intriguing stuff surrounding this one as well...not to mention causal relationships to the new kid on the block...Mr. Eubanks. "The Amazing Mr. Monfils" took the scalp of Stefanos Tsitsipas and is looking for more. Vukic has already taken down "Born Again" Coric and Sebastian Korda. Two legitimate wins in any ATP venue. Experience goes to "Amazing" while the legs department goes to Vukic. Lately it seems legs trump experience. We'll see.

Murray vs. Sinner: A case of "The Wheels". Sinner firepower enough to blunt that of Murray. Legs go to Sinner and Murray may resort to his old "clutch and grab" routine while yelling at his box. Good old Sir Andy...he hasn't changed all that much. Except perhaps he has lost half a step. Interesting how he can over compensate with his wits and psychology. A bit of gamesmanship.

McDonald vs. Raonic: Cover your ears oh sensitive ones. A political reference coming up. McDonald takes out two Ruskies. Russians actually. A bad word in any Western lexicon. Get over it. They exist and not displaying their flag is childish, vindictive and hostile. But it figures...considering the source. Mac takes out heavy hitting Karatsov and Rublev by the almost identical scores in straight sets. They shook hands like gentlemen after the match which is more than going on in the ladies events. Good for them...rise above I always say. Raonic on the other hand is serving big...but what about the wheels now? As I said before...we'll see. If McDonald gets the serve back with any kind of consistency he may be the favourite.

Fokina vs. Ruud: Fokina takes the first set and Ruud has been stumbling as of late suffering from a dose of the expectations. The Kiss of Death in ATP circles.

Fritz vs. di Minaur: Three to three head to head. di Minaur took the first three prior to 2019 and Frits has "owned" him the three times subsequently. Owned being a relative term as the Fritz victories have not been straight set wins. Look for a tussle if di Minaur is feeling it. I wouldn't put it past him either. The last three wins by Fritz have to leave a foul taste in his mouth. Knowing that he can beat him. He has been working his tail off...the little demon. Nothing straight forwards about this one either.

Musetti vs. Medvedev: Holy M&M's. Musetti a real stylist having the Kiss of Death recently in some obscure comparison the The Great One...Roger Federer. Look what that did for Dimitrov. No kidding...this one is perfect for Mr. Pencil. Diagramming a game plan against the elegance of Musetti is right up his alley. Another Ruskie. A proud Russian who must be getting tired of the lack of respect and the vindictiveness. I know I would be. A nice match up of polar opposites. Nothing classic about Medvedev in any aspect of the game...except that he is a very clever fellow and a very awkward opponent.

Read it and weep.

GREAT POST!!!...don_budge. Even if I do say so myself.

[don_budge]

GREAT POST!!!...don_budge. Even if I do say so myself.

So it's interesting how it all comes down to Tommy Paul (ranked 14) versus Jannik Sinner (ranked 8) and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ranked 37) versus Alex de Manuer (ranked 18). Paul's win over Carlos Alcarez is a bit dubious, I think, given the nature of the Big Time Wrestling similarities to the ATP tour nowadays. It looks as if certain players play certain tournament and matches a little soft, looking for a soft landing into the next week. Afterall...you don't want tire yourself out for the big prize. The tournament in question. The 2024 U. S. Open. I've seen enough of The Joker (Novak Djokovic) to know and understand the real score.

I can't say for certain. My instincts sometimes raise question marks on subjects that are given for the unsuspecting. Gambling is such a big business. Didn't I see that Andy Roddick is going to working in some compacity...that in effect promotes gambling. Money being the root of all evil or at least some of it. Ahem...it may have behooved Daniil Medvedev to take an early powder as well. The number 3 ranked player losing to the number 18 ranked player isn't a good look when it happens to both the number one and the number two seed on the same day. Is it a race to get to Cincinnati first?

Considering the rankings of the remaining players it begs the question about the relative depth on the tour. Of course these players look fantastic and other worldly to those without discerning vision. Without any vision at all actually. But they are all pretty one dimensional. Compared to the era of wooden racquets and when three of the four Slams were played on the lawn. On grass. So one might look at it a couple of ways. One might say that there is a lot of depth on the tour. Or...you might conclude that all in all the talent pool is pretty mediocre. Of the four remaining players it is hard to pick a favorite. So I must rely on bias. Prejudice. Preconceived notions. Then it would boil down to all things being equal...nationality. Since there are no no-name-country (Russian) players left I go with my old alma mater...the USA. It isn't that I love Russia per se...it is only that I don't like the way the Russian players are being bullied and treated like they are from an inferior or undeserving beginning. That isn't being political...that is just how I feel.

So come on Tommy Paul. A win over Jannik Sinner would be a huge feather in his cap. I wonder what the odds are. Maybe we should check with Andy Roddick for the inside dope.

[don_budge]

So it's interesting how it all comes down to Tommy Paul (ranked 14) versus Jannik Sinner (ranked 8) and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ranked 37) versus Alex de Manuer (ranked 18). Paul's win over Carlos Alcarez is a bit dubious, I think, given the nature of the Big Time Wrestling similarities to the ATP tour nowadays. It looks as if certain players play certain tournament and matches a little soft, looking for a soft landing into the next week. Afterall...you don't want tire yourself out for the big prize. The tournament in question. The 2024 U. S. Open. I've seen enough of The Joker (Novak Djokovic) to know and understand the real score.

I can't say for certain. My instincts sometimes raise question marks on subjects that are given for the unsuspecting. Gambling is such a big business. Didn't I see that Andy Roddick is going to working in some compacity...that in effect promotes gambling. Money being the root of all evil or at least some of it. Ahem...it may have behooved Daniil Medvedev to take an early powder as well. The number 3 ranked player losing to the number 18 ranked player isn't a good look when it happens to both the number one and the number two seed on the same day. Is it a race to get to Cincinnati first?

Considering the rankings of the remaining players it begs the question about the relative depth on the tour. Of course these players look fantastic and other worldly to those without discerning vision. Without any vision at all actually. But they are all pretty one dimensional. Compared to the era of wooden racquets and when three of the four Slams were played on the lawn. On grass. So one might look at it a couple of ways. One might say that there is a lot of depth on the tour. Or...you might conclude that all in all the talent pool is pretty mediocre. Of the four remaining players it is hard to pick a favorite. So I must rely on bias. Prejudice. Preconceived notions. Then it would boil down to all things being equal...nationality. Since there are no no-name-country (Russian) players left I go with my old alma mater...the USA. It isn't that I love Russia per se...it is only that I don't like the way the Russian players are being bullied and treated like they are from an inferior or undeserving beginning. That isn't being political...that is just how I feel.

So come on Tommy Paul. A win over Jannik Sinner would be a huge feather in his cap. I wonder what the odds are. Maybe we should check with Andy Roddick for the inside dope.

Wow!!! Another great post...don_budge!

[jimlosaltos]

Superb win by Paul. It was all him. Carlos fought very hard, but Paul took it. That is just the depth of ATP tennis.

It seems that the emerging, new tactic vs Alcaraz is to return aggressively to the backhand and then hold the baseline to keep Alcaraz from getting on the offensive. Hurkacz came close, Paul got it done both keeping Alcaraz on his back foot.

Despite having good velocity, action on his serve, Alcaraz perhaps leaves them short and not near lines, so the window is open a half a crack?

Old plan was to play him like Rafa, despite not being left handed, i.e. short, wide to the deuce court to take Alcaraz wide, then step in an flatten the ball to his backhand. Seb Korda beat him with that last year ... (Miami?) Ruud lost trying that in USO final.

[stotty]

It seems that the emerging, new tactic vs Alcaraz is to return aggressively to the backhand and then hold the baseline to keep Alcaraz from getting on the offensive. Hurkacz came close, Paul got it done both keeping Alcaraz on his back foot.

Despite having good velocity, action on his serve, Alcaraz perhaps leaves them short and not near lines, so the window is open a half a crack?

Old plan was to play him like Rafa, despite not being left handed, i.e. short, wide to the deuce court to take Alcaraz wide, then step in an flatten the ball to his backhand. Seb Korda beat him with that last year ... (Miami?) Ruud lost trying that in USO final.

So basically like Novak played Carlos in FO and in the first two sets at Wimbledon. Worked well but proved difficult even for Novak over five sets. One felt Carlos had turned a corner overcoming the tactic at the FO but then got cramp just as it looked like he was getting the upper hand.

The encounters were interesting because usually Novak lets the game come to him and then adjusts accordingly...no point pulling out all the stops unless you have to. Against Carlos, however, Novak must feel it's vital to suppress Carlos from the get go. Carlos must be a handful to play against.

[jimlosaltos]

So basically like Novak played Carlos in FO and in the first two sets at Wimbledon. Worked well but proved difficult even for Novak over five sets. One felt Carlos had turned a corner overcoming the tactic at the FO but then got cramp just as it looked like he was getting the upper hand.

The encounters were interesting because usually Novak lets the game come to him and then adjusts accordingly...no point pulling out all the stops unless you have to. Against Carlos, however, Novak must feel it's vital to suppress Carlos from the get go. Carlos must be a handful to play against.

Daniil Medvedev on starting Cinci:

"It’s always a balance so it’s not like, you’re only thinking about Carlos but then you lose first round thinking, ‘Well, at least I was prepared for Carlos!’"

[jimlosaltos]

So, later today we will see a first time Masters 1000 champ - Either Sinner or de Minaur.

This rally is worth a look. Real lung buster.

A 46 shot, ~ minute long single point between Jannik Sinner and Tommy Paul in their match at Toronto that went until what was it? 2:58 AM - seriously
One Paul shank in the middle but otherwise pretty pure ball striking.

(P.S. To view full screen, click double arrow in lower right of Twitter, er X, video window. )

https://twitter.com/ATPTour_ES/status/1690551246187593729?s=20

[jimlosaltos]

ATP: Jannik Sinner beats Alex de Minaur in Toronto final for first ATP Masters 1000 title. Jannik Sinner won the National Bank Open on Sunday for his first ATP Masters 1000 title, beating Alex de Minaur 6-4, 6-1.4

[stroke]

https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/sinner-v-de-minaur-toronto-final?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-81fe9514-8c90-4495-a700-9d06d327abba

Good write up on the final.