Speed and Spin in the Current Men’s Game

[stroke]

Well done by Monfils. Brutal by Tsitsipas. Monfils at the end of his career. Just review his record vs the big 3. That says it all. 0-18 vs Novak. A bit better vs Rafa and Fed.

[jimlosaltos]

Retired? Old? Retire This !

Today in Toronto: "Whoa...117 mph...have you ever seen that before? Maybe from del Potro?" says Pam Shriver on Tennis Channel.
as Gael Monfils hits a forehand 117 mph forehand at against Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Dude's got home hops!

Leaping forehand vid clip at The Web Site Formerly Known as Twitter (TWSFKT, never X)

https://twitter.com/ATPTour_ES/status/1689354858271326208?s=20

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[jimlosaltos]

That is super interesting. If I had to hazard a guess, it would be the conditions were not good for Rafa, maybe rushing him a bit and not able to consistently groove his forehand match wise.

Good guess. My hazy memory is that he conditions were hot sun that year. But since Rafa withdrew before quarter, I think it was, with Fed perhaps whatever the injury it was bothering him earlier? I'm sure he wouldn't have pulled from a Fed match for something trivial. I saw those two in another IW quarter. Fed's back was so bad he couldn't tie his own tennis shoes. But with a full stadium and Rafa, he showed up and took his beating. While Rafa retires more often, I suspect he'd feel the some need to show.

When Fritz beat Rafa, Rafa was significantly impaired from his semi with Alcaraz. But then Fritz's coach Annacone was telling him to withdraw as of that morning.

Separately, I hate to say this, but perhaps Tennis Channel mixed them up. Tennis media simply isn't at the level of media covering "organized sports" like baseball and football

Regardless, the "reaction time" differences are imperceptible.

[stroke]

Since we've looking at historical perspective, I dug around and somehow found this one.
Fedal & Sock from Indian Wells, I presume 2019 when Sock met Fed for the title? Not certain. No, I don't have a photographic memory but I was at that final.
Regardless, if this was all you saw, I suspect one wouldn't profile Fed nor Rafa correctly.
Presumably, this is for this event to the quarters. Rafa withdrew from his quarter with Fed.

Rafa has the lowest spin, the lowest trajectory, and the lowest speed of the august trio.

Sock highest of everything.

Fed's ave MPH is about normal for his forehand, but his spin here is perhaps 300-400 MPH more than I recall him averaging? Was he over-spinning to exploit the IW courts, which have more sand than The Ar Rub' al Khali desert? Was it because of his matchups coming in? Or just random?

From: Tennis Channel.

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That is super interesting. If I had to hazard a guess, it would be the conditions were not good for Rafa, maybe rushing him a bit and not able to consistently groove his forehand match wise.

[jimlosaltos]

Since we've looking at historical perspective, I dug around and somehow found this one.
Fedal & Sock from Indian Wells, I presume 2019 when Sock met Fed for the title? Not certain. No, I don't have a photographic memory but I was at that final.
Regardless, if this was all you saw, I suspect one wouldn't profile Fed nor Rafa correctly.
Presumably, this is for this event to the quarters. Rafa withdrew from his quarter with Fed.

Rafa has the lowest spin, the lowest trajectory, and the lowest speed of the august trio.

Sock highest of everything.

Fed's ave MPH is about normal for his forehand, but his spin here is perhaps 300-400 MPH more than I recall him averaging? Was he over-spinning to exploit the IW courts, which have more sand than The Ar Rub' al Khali desert? Was it because of his matchups coming in? Or just random?

From: Tennis Channel.

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[jimlosaltos]

I would certainly agree. I would say Keys and Rafa, 2 entirely, massively, different balls.

I detect and appreciate a note of sarcasm Part of my role here to to state the obvious. It's a daunting responsibility but somebody has to do it.

But point was the ave speed doesn't show that.

[stroke]

Good points, stotty. Averages show a great deal but they can also deceive.

In that AO GIG graphic from 2017, Madison Keys' forehand has slightly higher average velocity than that of Rafa. But Rafa's peak velocity is, by eyeballing the chart, about 15 MPH faster than hers. Without even getting into spin, which would you rather face? <g>. Not that Keys' was half bad at all.

I would certainly agree. I would say Keys and Rafa, 2 entirely, massively, different balls.

[jimlosaltos]

Super article. So I guess the game is more supercharged when you consider balls are moving just as fast as the flatter hitters of the past but with way more spin? Ruud's backhand seems like an anomaly in today's game. I notice from the clip he drops the racket head a lot an has steep upward swing to the ball, and I wonder how that compares to other ATP players and how it compares to Brian Gordon's take on the ATP backhand. You see, to get that much pace and spin seems remarkable.

Bruguera had a very steep upward swing on his forehand to generate spin. Less 'flipping' back then I suppose.

I'm not sure that average speed and spin rates tell the whole story. People who have watched any of the Big 4 live will have noticed who effective they are at mixing pace. Murray and Roger in particularly good at taking pace and spin up and down. Other players, however, hit similar paced shots the whole time; Bash being a good example.

What you don't see anymore are players who stroke the ball. These days it's all about banging it.

Good points, stotty. Averages show a great deal but they can also deceive.

In that AO GIG graphic from 2017, Madison Keys' forehand has slightly higher average velocity than that of Rafa. But Rafa's peak velocity is, by eyeballing the chart, about 15 MPH faster than hers. Without even getting into spin, which would you rather face? <g>. Not that Keys' was half bad at all.

[stotty]

Super article. So I guess the game is more supercharged when you consider balls are moving just as fast as the flatter hitters of the past but with way more spin? Ruud's backhand seems like an anomaly in today's game. I notice from the clip he drops the racket head a lot an has steep upward swing to the ball, and I wonder how that compares to other ATP players and how it compares to Brian Gordon's take on the ATP backhand. You see, to get that much pace and spin seems remarkable.

Bruguera had a very steep upward swing on his forehand to generate spin. Less 'flipping' back then I suppose.

I'm not sure that average speed and spin rates tell the whole story. People who have watched any of the Big 4 live will have noticed how effective they are at mixing pace. Murray and Roger in particularly good at taking pace and spin up and down. Other players, however, hit similar paced shots the whole time; Bash being a good example.

What you don't see anymore are players who stroke the ball. These days it's all about banging it.

[jimlosaltos]

Since some TPNers are interested in historic numbers, I dug out this graphic from a seminal article in the NYTs back in 2017.

Tennis Australia's analytics group, called GIG, 'opened the kimono' showing the level of stats the national organizations that hold majors collect, although rarely share with fans. For example, GIG described how it tracks "speed to a shot" for every shot. Milos Raonic had the fast speed in MPHs to a forehand, topping Fed. I posted this on TPN in the distant past, aka 4 B.C. (Before Covid).

In this graphic, we see both the average forehand speed (Dot at the left end of each bar, blue for men, red for women) and the max, which is the end of each line to your right.

As I mentioned in this month's TPN article, the top average was a tie between Tomas Berdych and Madison Keys. In essence, Arnya Sabalenka is today's Keys.

As is the case today, the top women approach the top men in average velocity, although their highest speed shots are lower in velocity.

For those that are into the details, as I recall since GIG is comprised of stat gurus, they do some things the rest of us wouldn't necessarily. For example, they eliminate the very highest MPHs to keep outliers from distorting results or having errors creep into the data.

Image from New York Times from data by GIG.

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[jimlosaltos]

I believe that shot by Thiem was from beating Fed.

[jimlosaltos]

Update: Found the Thiem pic / stat from 2016 - 4,498 RPMs

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[jimlosaltos]

It seems like to me at one time, years ago when Sock had a much better ranking, he was at the very top of the ATP forehand rpm's. But I never saw this kind of detail. Berrenttini is right up there also it seems.

I dug this out from 2021

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Also, this image with Thiem vs Zverev in 2016. Somewhere in a dusty corner of my hard drive, I have a screen cap from TV of Thiem clubbing a mid-court forehand at 4,500 RPMs. So, there are averages and then there is gonzo. <g>

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[stroke]

Do you remember what Sock's numbers were like? He seems to hit pretty extreme topspin levels. I knew Thiem was putting a ton of topspin but didn't know it was that much. It's a shame that he has fallen away after being so successful.

It seems like to me at one time, years ago when Sock had a much better ranking, he was at the very top of the ATP forehand rpm's. But I never saw this kind of detail. Berrenttini is right up there also it seems.

[jeffreycounts]

One caveat I'll note here. We focused on the top 10 ATP players because they're important, visible, and it keeps the effort manageable.

Do you remember what Sock's numbers were like? He seems to hit pretty extreme topspin levels. I knew Thiem was putting a ton of topspin but didn't know it was that much. It's a shame that he has fallen away after being so successful.