Speed and Spin in the Current Men’s Game

[johnyandell]

Let's discuss Jim Fawcette's latest article, "Speed and Spin in the Current Men’s Game"!

[jeffreycounts]

The spin on Rudd's backhand is crazy! You can see in the clip how is almost using a windshield wiper motion on it. With his 80mph forehand and huge spin two hander no wonder he keeps getting to Grand Slam finals.

I'm going to be pondering this numbers for a bit. Great article!

[stroke]

The spin on Rudd's backhand is crazy! You can see in the clip how is almost using a windshield wiper motion on it. With his 80mph forehand and huge spin two hander no wonder he keeps getting to Grand Slam finals.

I'm going to be pondering this numbers for a bit. Great article!

Yes, I think these numbers go a long way towards explaining how Ruud has been able to achieve and maintain his high ranking. He hits such a heavy quality ball with so much margin obviously. I would like to see this info on Chris Eubanks numbers. He seems to be blasting winners at quite the clip off both sides(along with his serve).

[jimlosaltos]

The spin on Rudd's backhand is crazy! You can see in the clip how is almost using a windshield wiper motion on it. With his 80mph forehand and huge spin two hander no wonder he keeps getting to Grand Slam finals.

I'm going to be pondering this numbers for a bit. Great article!

Thanks ! Please share any thoughts.

[jimlosaltos]

One caveat I'll note here. We focused on the top 10 ATP players because they're important, visible, and it keeps the effort manageable.

But a number of players we're covered in the past, ones that hit with either or both great velocity and spin, players whose numbers were near or at the top in prior reports, have dropped out of the top rankings.

Domi Thiem, Matteo Berrettini, and Sasha Zverev, all felled by quite different injuries and with careers on different trajectories are key among them.

Thiem regularly hit one of and often the highest forehand topspin on tour, averaging higher than Rafa and I've seen peak RPMs of 4,900 for his shot. Berrettini has hit 3,900 RPMs on forehands (I can't recall averages) and maintained an average of 90 MPHs for most if not all of a match. Zverev has topped many backhand stats for some time.

Looks like Matteo and Zverev are nearing a return to form, while we may have seen Peak Thiem come and go.

[jeffreycounts]

One caveat I'll note here. We focused on the top 10 ATP players because they're important, visible, and it keeps the effort manageable.

Do you remember what Sock's numbers were like? He seems to hit pretty extreme topspin levels. I knew Thiem was putting a ton of topspin but didn't know it was that much. It's a shame that he has fallen away after being so successful.

[stroke]

Do you remember what Sock's numbers were like? He seems to hit pretty extreme topspin levels. I knew Thiem was putting a ton of topspin but didn't know it was that much. It's a shame that he has fallen away after being so successful.

It seems like to me at one time, years ago when Sock had a much better ranking, he was at the very top of the ATP forehand rpm's. But I never saw this kind of detail. Berrenttini is right up there also it seems.

[jimlosaltos]

It seems like to me at one time, years ago when Sock had a much better ranking, he was at the very top of the ATP forehand rpm's. But I never saw this kind of detail. Berrenttini is right up there also it seems.

I dug this out from 2021

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Also, this image with Thiem vs Zverev in 2016. Somewhere in a dusty corner of my hard drive, I have a screen cap from TV of Thiem clubbing a mid-court forehand at 4,500 RPMs. So, there are averages and then there is gonzo. <g>

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[jimlosaltos]

Update: Found the Thiem pic / stat from 2016 - 4,498 RPMs

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[jimlosaltos]

I believe that shot by Thiem was from beating Fed.

[jimlosaltos]

Since some TPNers are interested in historic numbers, I dug out this graphic from a seminal article in the NYTs back in 2017.

Tennis Australia's analytics group, called GIG, 'opened the kimono' showing the level of stats the national organizations that hold majors collect, although rarely share with fans. For example, GIG described how it tracks "speed to a shot" for every shot. Milos Raonic had the fast speed in MPHs to a forehand, topping Fed. I posted this on TPN in the distant past, aka 4 B.C. (Before Covid).

In this graphic, we see both the average forehand speed (Dot at the left end of each bar, blue for men, red for women) and the max, which is the end of each line to your right.

As I mentioned in this month's TPN article, the top average was a tie between Tomas Berdych and Madison Keys. In essence, Arnya Sabalenka is today's Keys.

As is the case today, the top women approach the top men in average velocity, although their highest speed shots are lower in velocity.

For those that are into the details, as I recall since GIG is comprised of stat gurus, they do some things the rest of us wouldn't necessarily. For example, they eliminate the very highest MPHs to keep outliers from distorting results or having errors creep into the data.

Image from New York Times from data by GIG.

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[stotty]

Super article. So I guess the game is more supercharged when you consider balls are moving just as fast as the flatter hitters of the past but with way more spin? Ruud's backhand seems like an anomaly in today's game. I notice from the clip he drops the racket head a lot an has steep upward swing to the ball, and I wonder how that compares to other ATP players and how it compares to Brian Gordon's take on the ATP backhand. You see, to get that much pace and spin seems remarkable.

Bruguera had a very steep upward swing on his forehand to generate spin. Less 'flipping' back then I suppose.

I'm not sure that average speed and spin rates tell the whole story. People who have watched any of the Big 4 live will have noticed how effective they are at mixing pace. Murray and Roger in particularly good at taking pace and spin up and down. Other players, however, hit similar paced shots the whole time; Bash being a good example.

What you don't see anymore are players who stroke the ball. These days it's all about banging it.

[jimlosaltos]

Super article. So I guess the game is more supercharged when you consider balls are moving just as fast as the flatter hitters of the past but with way more spin? Ruud's backhand seems like an anomaly in today's game. I notice from the clip he drops the racket head a lot an has steep upward swing to the ball, and I wonder how that compares to other ATP players and how it compares to Brian Gordon's take on the ATP backhand. You see, to get that much pace and spin seems remarkable.

Bruguera had a very steep upward swing on his forehand to generate spin. Less 'flipping' back then I suppose.

I'm not sure that average speed and spin rates tell the whole story. People who have watched any of the Big 4 live will have noticed who effective they are at mixing pace. Murray and Roger in particularly good at taking pace and spin up and down. Other players, however, hit similar paced shots the whole time; Bash being a good example.

What you don't see anymore are players who stroke the ball. These days it's all about banging it.

Good points, stotty. Averages show a great deal but they can also deceive.

In that AO GIG graphic from 2017, Madison Keys' forehand has slightly higher average velocity than that of Rafa. But Rafa's peak velocity is, by eyeballing the chart, about 15 MPH faster than hers. Without even getting into spin, which would you rather face? <g>. Not that Keys' was half bad at all.

[stroke]

Good points, stotty. Averages show a great deal but they can also deceive.

In that AO GIG graphic from 2017, Madison Keys' forehand has slightly higher average velocity than that of Rafa. But Rafa's peak velocity is, by eyeballing the chart, about 15 MPH faster than hers. Without even getting into spin, which would you rather face? <g>. Not that Keys' was half bad at all.

I would certainly agree. I would say Keys and Rafa, 2 entirely, massively, different balls.

[jimlosaltos]

I would certainly agree. I would say Keys and Rafa, 2 entirely, massively, different balls.

I detect and appreciate a note of sarcasm Part of my role here to to state the obvious. It's a daunting responsibility but somebody has to do it.

But point was the ave speed doesn't show that.