French Open

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https://sports.yahoo.com/french-open-betting-odds-shift-with-rafael-nadal-missing-roland-garros-214205090.html

[jimlosaltos]

Well, the favorite in Paris is obvious now.

Alcaraz lost to a qualifier. Rune beat Djokovic and Ruud. Then Medvedev beat Rune, so The Octopus is the favorite at Roland Garros!

Kidding! But it does show how up in the air this year's French seems to be on the ATP side.

[stotty]

Well, the favorite in Paris is obvious now.

Alcaraz lost to a qualifier. Rune beat Djokovic and Ruud. Then Medvedev beat Rune, so The Octopus is the favorite at Roland Garros!

Kidding! But it does show how up in the air this year's French seems to be on the ATP side.

A lot will depend how healthy Novak is and whether he can right his ship in time. I think he will. These ATP 1000's are just limbering up events these days for Novak and I'm not sure they have any meaning at this stage in his rather illustrious career. It's all about getting his ducks in a row for slams. Carlos won't easy to beat in 5 sets either. He has the makings of a five set monster like the Big 3.

I have a feeling Rune and Meddy will fall short...don't know why I think that, just do.

[jimlosaltos]

A lot will depend how healthy Novak is and whether he can right his ship in time. I think he will. These ATP 1000's are just limbering up events these days for Novak and I'm not sure they have any meaning at this stage in his rather illustrious career. It's all about getting his ducks in a row for slams. Carlos won't easy to beat in 5 sets either. He has the makings of a five set monster like the Big 3.

I have a feeling Rune and Meddy will fall short...don't know why I think that, just do.

Agree with all that {Wait, is that allowed in this forum? }

OK, I am probably more skeptical about Djokovic's health. His demeanor, when I saw him at least, was extremely negative. Given his prior elbow surgery, having a recurrence is troublesome. I've never heard specifics, but one guess is that Djoko had his bursa sac removed, by the same MD that did Tsitsipas's. That Djokovic was wearing a sleeve, and taking pain killers mid match for an injury that has already has surgery isn't a good sign for a tennis player that turns 36 on Monday.

[stotty]

Agree with all that {Wait, is that allowed in this forum? }

OK, I am probably more skeptical about Djokovic's health. His demeanor, when I saw him at least, was extremely negative. Given his prior elbow surgery, having a recurrence is troublesome. I've never heard specifics, but one guess is that Djoko had his bursa sac removed, by the same MD that did Tsitsipas's. That Djokovic was wearing a sleeve, and taking pain killers mid match for an injury that has already has surgery isn't a good sign for a tennis player that turns 36 on Monday.

I have seen very little tennis of late as I am on court coaching morning til night at this time of year, so cannot comment much on Novak's demeanour. Why the alarm with the elbow going wrong after surgery? Does this make treatment less likely to be successful second time around?

The only player I remember have his career ended through tennis elbow was Tony Roche.

[jimlosaltos]

I have seen very little tennis of late as I am on court coaching morning til night at this time of year, so cannot comment much on Novak's demeanour. Why the alarm with the elbow going wrong after surgery? Does this make treatment less likely to be successful second time around?

The only player I remember have his career ended through tennis elbow was Tony Roche.

Good point about precedents, stotty. Knees, hip labrums, wrists, backs ... all more likely culprits than elbows, despite the term "tennis elbow".

And I don't have anything concrete to go on. But Djokovic went through a fair amount of trauma before having elbow surgery in 2018. His rank fell to a range of 10-22nd in the world then. Agassi reportedly quit coaching Djokovic because he refused to get surgery the first time. I can't imagine a recurrence of the same injury (if it is even that) would be easier to have nor to recover from at 36 than at 30.

Also, perhaps I'm simply skittish about seeing great players struggle to come back -- from Fed to Delpo to Thiem to Wawrinka. But, you're right that none of those was from an elbow.

[jimlosaltos]

Draw could be more interesting and relevant than usual.. After losing most of his 1,000 points as defending champ in Rome, Djokovic is down to 3 in the world.

As the third seed, Djoko will end up in either the top half, headed by presumptive number 1 seed Carlos Alcaraz, or the bottom half, headed by Daniil Medvedev, who suddenly discovered his clay game last fortnite. So, on seed, Novak would have to beat both of them. Of course, there is no guarantee Medvedev won't lose his new-found clay prowess as quickly as it appeared.

Djokovic has a great opportunity to improve his rank before Wimbledon. Last year, Djokovic was the top seed and lost in the quarterfinals to Nadal. So, he's only defending 360 points. Or, if you're a glass-half-empty kind of person, Djokovic could go further down the ranks going into Wimbledon, if Ruud or Tsitsipas or Rune leaps over him with a good run in Paris.

In my best Soup Nazi voice: No more cupcake draws for you.

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[jimlosaltos]

Fabian Marozsan, who looked so impressive in taking out Carlos Alcaraz in Rome, is out in the second round of French qualies, 3-6, 3-6 to 18 year old Juncheng Shang of China. Fabian showed so much talent, a remarkable forehand, and masterful tactics in Rome. A couple of weeks later, he's back to being a footnote. That's part of tennis, I guess. Lots of players have the pieces but can't assemble the full jigsaw puzzle.

[jimlosaltos]

Trivial but amuses. Fed did a social media Q&A.

Asked about enjoying playing Rafa at Roland Garros he answered, "Those 4 games in 2008 were great." {Fed lost 1,3,0}

Asked if he was ever mistaken for someone else:

Federer: "happened the other day at the Formula 1. A guy asked "Can i have a picture with you Mr Nadal?". I told him I wasn't Mr Nadal. He apologized and left without taking a picture

[jimlosaltos]

Draws in:

Based on seedings, These are the

Projected Roland Garros women’s singles quarterfinals:

Swiatek/Gauff
Rybakina/Jabeur
Sakkari/Pegula
Garcia/Sabalenka


Projected Roland Garros men’s singles QF:

Alcaraz/Tsitsipas
Rublev/Djokovic
Rune/Ruud
Sinner/Medvedev


Despite being the top seed, Carlos Alcaraz appears to me to have the most difficult, potential route to the final, meeting three, excellent clay court players Musetti/Norrie, Tsitsipas, and Djokovic, just to get to the final. Conversely, Novak Djokovic, despite dropping to the third seed has, yet again, the relatively "easiest" route, facing Kovacevic, Fucsovics, Fokina, Hurkacz, Rublev, but in the potential, blockbuster semi, Alcaraz. Daniil Medvedev would have to beat Nishioka, Coric, Sinner and last-year's finalist, Ruud.

Some links:
Men's singles bracket: https://olympics.nbcsports.com/2023/...ngles-bracket/
Women's singles bracket: https://olympics.nbcsports.com/2023/...ngles-bracket/

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[jimlosaltos]

Here is the domestic, US, TV & streaming schedule via NBC:

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[jimlosaltos]

The full list of international broadcasters is here:

https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/broadcasters

Only change I see off hand is Amazon Prime, which started coverage in France last year, but no longer lists the UK.

[jimlosaltos]

I have seen very little tennis of late as I am on court coaching morning til night at this time of year, so cannot comment much on Novak's demeanour. Why the alarm with the elbow going wrong after surgery? Does this make treatment less likely to be successful second time around?

The only player I remember have his career ended through tennis elbow was Tony Roche.

I searched around a bit to refresh my memory on Djokovic's prior elbow injury and might as well share that for anyone that is interested.

This by Agassi from the Guardian is the most concrete discussion I could find:

"Agassi, who said when the pair parted company in April that they had too often found themselves agreeing to disagree, cited the Serb’s initial unwillingness to have surgery on the chronic elbow injury that put him out of action for the final six months of last year as the chief stumbling block in a collaboration also undermined by differences over training and nutrition.

“I only knew him with a hurt elbow, so it was always plasters and big problems,” his former coach Agassi said. “I think there was a real hope his elbow could heal naturally, holistically. I personally wasn’t a fan of that choice. You can’t force someone when it comes to their own body, you have to understand their hesitations, but health is a function of taking care of your body, making the hard decisions, giving yourself the time and then moving forward methodically. Rest wasn’t going to do it in my estimation.

“When I saw the results of his MRIs in August, I was very clear with him: I advocated surgery right away, because that could end the issue once and for all.”

Djokovic underwent surgery in February, after losing to South Korea’s Chung Hyeon ng at the Australian Open the previous month. By then Agassi and his fellow coach, Radek Stepanek, had worked to remodel the 12-times grand slam title winner’s serve with the aim of reducing stress on the injured joint. Implementing the change was not easy – “there weren’t two healthy days in a row,” said Agassi – but Djokovic’s motion became more compact, even if its fluidity and accuracy perhaps suffered, particularly on the wide kick serve to the advantage court.

“That’s a hyper-extension movement. If something hurts, that’s the one that you’re going to be hesitant with,” Agassi said. “If you have an elbow issue, you’re going to be a little hesitant to throw that arm as aggressively as you have to.”

~~~~~

As for what the injury was, the only discussion I found was this, saying it was a "bone bruise". I'm still not an MD but I doubt he had an operation on a bone bruise. Or, if so, it would have been more substantial.

"Djokovic has been hindered by a bruised bone in his elbow from excessive playing, one of his physicians, Zdenko Milinkovic, said in an interview in Serbia on Tuesday. Djokovic, 30, said at Wimbledon that the elbow had bothered him to varying degrees over the past year and a half, which may be the simplest explanation for his slide from the dominant perch he previously occupied in men’s tennis."

~~~~~~~~

Best "rumor", for whatever that is worth, is that Djokovic had surgery on a swollen bursa sac. That is normally a relatively mundane operation. NFL QB John Elway famously threw a 70 yard TD pass in a Super Bowl "with no bursa sac". The success rate is quite high. The bursa sac grows back without inflammation.

BUT Djokovic is having significant problems -- or at least is wearing a sleeve, taking medical time outs for pain killers, and looking in distress.

I'll note that Djokovic has over the last 2 years changed his service motion again, making his serve, particularly his second serve, even more effective. Did that come at a cost?




Guardian Link: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...e-elbow-injury

[jimlosaltos]

This from Jeff at Heavy Topspin might be of interest. I've always liked Karatsev's game.

"Today, Aslan Karatsev plays for a place in the French Open main draw. He is the top seed in qualifying on the strength of his ATP ranking of 62. A top-70 ranking would normally guarantee main draw entry with room to spare. But when the list was finalized about six weeks ago, Karatsev lingered outside the top 120. Since then, he reached the semi-finals in Madrid.

It is rare for such a high-ranked player to appear in qualifying. (Or to put it another way, it is unusual for a player outside the top 100 to make such gains in just a few weeks.) But it is not unprecedented. Here are the 13th highest-ranked top seeds in men's slam qualifying since 2000:

{Note: I'll only list the top entry, rather than post all his content. But this is a trip down memory lane.}

>Peter Wetz ran this query for me and found a surprise. In 1982, 35th-ranked Vijay Amritraj reached the Wimbledon main draw as a qualifier. 35! Arguably, he was even better than that. He had finished the 1981 season ranked 20th, in large part on the strength of a quarter-final showing at Wimbledon, where he couldn't convert a two-sets-to-love lead on Jimmy Connors. Amritraj was considered one of the best grass-court players in the world.

The 28-year-old Indian star was stuck in qualifying because he was at odds with the tennis establishment. The men's Grand Prix--roughly speaking, the equivalent of today's ATP tour--established a new rule, that players must commit to at least ten Grand Prix events in order to be eligible for the slams. Another protester was Bj?rn Borg, who wanted to keep playing only if he could pick his spots more carefully."

And: He did pretty well, despite spending more time back than acting (Bond movie !) than tennis.

> round of 32. There, he capitulated to Roscoe Tanner in what must have been a fine display of grass court tennis. Tanner, the 14th seed and 1979 finalist, beat him, 6-4, 6-4, 4-6, 4-6, 6-3. For the fifth year in a row, Vijay exited the Championships after a five-set loss.


Source: https://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/...lam-qualifier/

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Today's semi's, Geneve and Lyon, 3 of the 4 matches were outstanding. Nicholas Jarry really played well taking out Zverev, Dimitrov in 3 over Fritz, and Fils in 3 over Nakashima. The 4th match was not good, Cerundolo, who suddenly looks like a FO dark horse, really put a beatdown on Cam Norrie.