Barcelona ATP 500

[stroke]

Tsitsipas looking very FO ready in his match vs the demon. It appears he is on a collision course with Alcaraz in a potential final. Musetti could be a problem for him in the semis. Sinner was supposed to play Musetti today, but Sinner withdrew from the tournament. In Munich, birthday boy Zverev goes out 2nd round(he had 1st round bye) to O'Connell, in 2 sets. He is definitely not trending in the right direction.

[stroke]

In Bosnia, Lajovic takes out Novak in 2 long sets for the biggest win of his career. Lajovic has long had a nice looking game, reminiscent of Wawrinka to me, but no one saw this win coming. Novak just not winning the big points he almost always does.

[jimlosaltos]

In Bosnia, Lajovic takes out Novak in 2 long sets for the biggest win of his career. Lajovic has long had a nice looking game, reminiscent of Wawrinka to me, but no one saw this win coming. Novak just not winning the big points he almost always does.

Didn't win the big points indeed, Novak held over twice as many break points but lost. Lajovic saved 15 of 16 BPs, converted 5 of 7.

Separately, Sinner withdrew. Presumably prior wrist issue, which after Thiem is worrisome.

[don_budge]

In Bosnia, Lajovic takes out Novak in 2 long sets for the biggest win of his career. Lajovic has long had a nice looking game, reminiscent of Wawrinka to me, but no one saw this win coming. Novak just not winning the big points he almost always does.

A more favorable format for Novak this week. A good chance to get some much needed match play in the run up to the French Open which is his target at this point. The competition is not nearly as daunting. Rafael Nadal is measuring his steps as well. He pulled out of Barcelona. Nadal might be another story as he might be in decline. Perhaps he is somewhere on the sidelines juicing up to once again emerge from hibernation as some sort of superman. At any rate...it is all about preparation now for the Roland Garros target date. Preparation...preparation...preparation is the mantra of a tennis player. Coach Collins told me more than once that you play five tournaments in order to peak for the target. Both Novak and Nadal understand to the last infintismal detail what it takes to get there and get the job done. They can hit the ground running if they have too. Maybe not as good as Federer but they know how to measure each and every precious step leading up to the target.

Yeah...no one but me. I thought he might just disappear to the 18 year old French kid. The kid gave him a run for the money. So why not gift a biggest win of his career to a fellow countryman? We have seen Novak do some really gamesmenship performances in the past...this is nothing new. A variation perhaps. His sights are on the French. All this conjecture about the sleeve is just the kind of gossip he hopes to generate. "Limp Leg" Djokovic. An old NFL running back trick...the limp leg then it is off to the races. What will be interesting is if he can actually summon the dragon when he needs to. Nothing is written in stone. There is no guarentee that he will be able to. But there is a good chance we will see a different Djokovic in a few weeks. Nadal is a different story. He is the ultimate conman. Nothing surprises me coming out of his corner. A real piece of work he is. I never did like him. My first impression of him in his clamdiggers and his sleeveless getup...was what a hot dog. That impression has never wavered. Granted he is a competitor...but he is a cheater as well. Working the clock on every single point. Testing his opponents sanity. A real jerk.

[stroke]

Tsitsipas gets past Musetti in 3, just playing the big points better. Up next, Alcaraz a massive favorite vs Evans, with an implied probability of winning of 92.5%. Oddsmakers have now put Alcaraz as the favorite for the FO, followed by Novak, Nadal, and Tsitsipas.

[stroke]

Alcaraz completely overwhelmed Evans. No small margins there.

[jimlosaltos]

Alcaraz completely overwhelmed Evans. No small margins there.

Ditto Tsitsipas. 6-3, 6-4 in 79-minutes, broken once, won 58% of points (59 to 42).

Overwhelming favorite at Roland Garros?

[stroke]

Alcaraz is in fact now the favorite to win RG, followed by Novak, Nadal, and Tsitsipas. It is I think the first time since 2005(Nadal did not play RG in 2004, that year, he was injured, his first FO was 2005, which he won, and I think he was the oddsmakers favorite) has not been the oddsmakers favorite. In fact it would be interesting to know that in Majors since about 2005, has the favorite been anyone other than than the 3. I doubt it. But Alcaraz seems to be setting a new standard of play on clay with his top shelf forehand, a very good backhand, pristine movement, a very good serve, and maybe the best clay court drop shot weapons ever. I would probably still pick a 19 year old Nadal over a 19 year old Alcaraz on clay, but who knows.

[stotty]

Alcaraz is in fact now the favorite to win RG, followed by Novak, Nadal, and Tsitsipas. It is I think the first time since 2005(Nadal did not play RG in 2004, that year, he was injured, his first FO was 2005, which he won, and I think he was the oddsmakers favorite) has not been the oddsmakers favorite. In fact it would be interesting to know that in Majors since about 2005, has the favorite been anyone other than than the 3. I doubt it. But Alcaraz seems to be setting a new standard of play on clay with his top shelf forehand, a very good backhand, pristine movement, a very good serve, and maybe the best clay court drop shot weapons ever. I would probably still pick a 19 year old Nadal over a 19 year old Alcaraz on clay, but who knows.

No questions Rafa is head and shoulders above Alcaraz on clay at any point in his career. He's likely even better now at 36 if he can get to fitness. The only player able to do conquer Rafa thus far has been Novak at his absolute supreme best. At the moment Alcaraz stills sprays a few too many balls to beat Rafa on clay...or even Novak on clay for that matter.

I have never seen anyone drop shot better than Alcaraz...who seems equally good off both wings.

[jimlosaltos]

No questions Rafa is head and shoulders above Alcaraz on clay at any point in his career. He's likely even better now at 36 if he can get to fitness. The only player able to do conquer Rafa thus far has been Novak at his absolute supreme best. At the moment Alcaraz stills sprays a few too many balls to beat Rafa on clay...or even Novak on clay for that matter.

I have never seen anyone drop shot better than Alcaraz...who seems equally good off both wings.

Agreed (well, maybe 80% agreed <g> ) But I don't believe the issue is Rafa's level of play but 1) his health and 2) his tournament prep.

Rafa, historically, has wanted a lot of tournament practice time before majors. A few players can "play themselves into shape" over the first week of a major, vs secondary players. But Rafa says he needs lot of work so even if it isn't true he believes it?

As for the iliopsoas / psosas injury, I'm no MD and I hate TV talking heads speculating on medical issues, but taking over 2 months to recovery is unusual. Rafa said he had to start over. By now, Rafa's had anti-inflammatory injections, and PT but it hasn't healed. If he needs surgery, I believe they cut the tendon to release the muscle. If he has that, recovery odds are supposedly good, but it could be the US Open before can return, let alone Roland Garros. What else is left other than surgery?

[stotty]

As for the iliopsoas / psosas injury, I'm no MD and I hate TV talking heads speculating on medical issues, but taking over 2 months to recovery is unusual. Rafa said he had to start over. By now, Rafa's had anti-inflammatory injections, and PT but it hasn't healed. If he needs surgery, I believe they cut the tendon to release the muscle. If he has that, recovery odds are supposedly good, but it could be the US Open before can return, let alone Roland Garros. What else is left other than surgery?

I was rather hoping for a better prognosis than that. Being out until the US Open will likely spell the end of his career in terms of ever getting back to his previous stellar level. Let's hope his outcome turns out to be better. It will be really sad if he cannot compete at RG this year.

[stroke]

I was rather hoping for a better prognosis than that. Being out until the US Open will likely spell the end of his career in terms of ever getting back to his previous stellar level. Let's hope his outcome turns out to be better. It will be really sad if he cannot compete at RG this year.

I personally think this FO is his last hurrah, kind of Iike when a struggling Sampras got it together one last time to beat Agassi in his last Major win for the US Open. I personally do not like his chances of making a serious run at one more title here.

[jimlosaltos]

I was rather hoping for a better prognosis than that. Being out until the US Open will likely spell the end of his career in terms of ever getting back to his previous stellar level. Let's hope his outcome turns out to be better. It will be really sad if he cannot compete at RG this year.

Perhaps I'm overly pessimistic, possibly symptomatic of having PTSD from Fed's retirement

I hope Rafa plays Roland Garros and does well. There's still hope.

[jimlosaltos]

I personally think this FO is his last hurrah, kind of Iike when a struggling Sampras got it together one last time to beat Agassi in his last Major win for the US Open. I personally do not like his chances of making a serious run at one more title here.

If Rafa could go out like Peter did, that would be awesome.