Nadal to Miss Clay Court Season Through at Least Madrid

[jimlosaltos]

In Spanish language posts, Rafa describes his injury, says that it has not responded as doctors expected and he and his team are trying a new approach.

Machine translation of one post:

I was training, but now a few days ago we decided to change course a bit, do another treatment and see if things improve to try to get to what comes next. I can't give deadlines because if I knew I would tell you but I don't know. This is how things are now.

AND:

We find ourselves in a difficult situation. The weeks are passing and I had the illusion of being able to play in tournaments that are the most important in my career such as Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros and for the moment I have missed Monte Carlo and Barcelona.

I will not be able to be in Madrid unfortunately. The injury still hasn't healed and I can't work out what I need to to compete.

https://twitter.com/RafaelNadal/status/1648982350229905408?s=20

[don_budge]

A more favorable format for Novak this week. A good chance to get some much needed match play in the run up to the French Open which is his target at this point. The competition is not nearly as daunting. Rafael Nadal is measuring his steps as well. He pulled out of Barcelona. Nadal might be another story as he might be in decline. Perhaps he is somewhere on the sidelines juicing up to once again emerge from hibernation as some sort of superman. At any rate...it is all about preparation now for the Roland Garros target date. Preparation...preparation...preparation is the mantra of a tennis player. Coach Collins told me more than once that you play five tournaments in order to peak for the target. Both Novak and Nadal understand to the last infintismal detail what it takes to get there and get the job done. They can hit the ground running if they have too. Maybe not as good as Federer but they know how to measure each and every precious step leading up to the target.

[stotty]

It's going to be tight for Rafa to be fit in time. I am really hoping he is going to make it because there are some real contenders to his throne and I cannot see Rafa sustaining his level into 2024.

That said, Rafa is pretty miserable much of the time in my view. I think he would like to call it a day but is haunted by the thought Novak will overtake him in the slam tally if he doesn't keep going. Novak, much like Roger, has a far sunnier attitude towards life and tennis.

[jimlosaltos]

It's going to be tight for Rafa to be fit in time. I am really hoping he is going to make it because there are some real contenders to his throne and I cannot see Rafa sustaining his level into 2024.

That said, Rafa is pretty miserable much of the time in my view. I think he would like to call it a day but is haunted by the thought Novak will overtake him in the slam tally if he doesn't keep going. Novak, much like Roger, has a far sunnier attitude towards life and tennis.

I hope Rafa can go out on his own terms, and get the send off he deserves.

Hard to do that at the top of any sport, including tennis.

Perhaps he'll even be ready for Roland Garros. But given how Rafa likes to get lots of tournament play in before big events, playing well is a big ask.

I wonder if the psoas diagnosis was wrong? That usually heals with time and only rarely needs surgery, as I understand it, so the duration of his injury seems problematic

[arturohernandez]

I hope Rafa can go out on his own terms, and get the send off he deserves.

Hard to do that at the top of any sport, including tennis.

Perhaps he'll even be ready for Roland Garros. But given how Rafa likes to get lots of tournament play in before big events, playing well is a big ask.

I wonder if the psoas diagnosis was wrong? That usually heals with time and only rarely needs surgery, as I understand it, so the duration of his injury seems problematic

Well, I have been thinking that both Novak and Rafa would decline earlier than Fed did. Fed could win points quickly which is something that is harder for Rafa who would rather stay back further. Novak has a pretty good first strike game so he may be able to hold on longer.

[arturohernandez]

Did anyone see that Novak's forehand looked different? I am not sure if his elbow was hurting or if he has been tweaking it. The sleeve he was wearing in Monte Carlo did not look good.

The young guard is hungry and I think Novak (and Rafa!) will have great difficulty hanging with a healthy Alcaraz for five sets. Alcaraz looks to be an all court player. I just saw him start to drop shot and then serve and volley against RBA on clay.

It's a tough ask to hang with someone 16 years younger who is fit, not afraid and HUNGRY. For a while, I thought the age of ascension for GS champions had been pushed back to 24 or maybe even later. Then out of the blue Alcaraz goes back to the old playbook. The one carried by McEnroe, Becker, Sampras, Nadal and Djokovic.

GS champions ascend around 19 and win their first of many. Becker a bit younger was a phenom. Fed a bit older was one as well in a different way.

Alcaraz is playing by the old book. If he stays healthy, I see him as the next one on the list. Not sure he will win 20 or more but he can definitely match McEnroe and probably reach Sampras.

Meanwhile, Nadal has to deal with a hip and Djokovic with his elbow, I think.

[stroke]

I watched his last 3 set win over number 87 ranked Van Assche. He looked the same to me, played well enough. Van Assche played well, Novak had to earn it. I just don't see how his elbow could be that much of an issue. Any of us that have had tennis elbow know it is certainly not something one can play through.

[stroke]

Novak in a tough first set vs Lajovic. The elbow sleeve is gone today.

[jimlosaltos]

Did anyone see that Novak's forehand looked different? I am not sure if his elbow was hurting or if he has been tweaking it. The sleeve he was wearing in Monte Carlo did not look good.

The young guard is hungry and I think Novak (and Rafa!) will have great difficulty hanging with a healthy Alcaraz for five sets. Alcaraz looks to be an all court player. I just saw him start to drop shot and then serve and volley against RBA on clay.

It's a tough ask to hang with someone 16 years younger who is fit, not afraid and HUNGRY. For a while, I thought the age of ascension for GS champions had been pushed back to 24 or maybe even later. Then out of the blue Alcaraz goes back to the old playbook. The one carried by McEnroe, Becker, Sampras, Nadal and Djokovic.

GS champions ascend around 19 and win their first of many. Becker a bit younger was a phenom. Fed a bit older was one as well in a different way.

Alcaraz is playing by the old book. If he stays healthy, I see him as the next one on the list. Not sure he will win 20 or more but he can definitely match McEnroe and probably reach Sampras.

Meanwhile, Nadal has to deal with a hip and Djokovic with his elbow, I think.

Did not see today's match, but yes Djokovic has been working with Goran on his forehand -- hitting bigger this year. Also bulked up his upper body. Perhaps compensating since backhand isn't dominating rallies like it used to.

[jimlosaltos]

Rafa now out of Rome. Would be first time he's ever played Roland Garros without clay tournament prep. One could argue he's had 2 decades of clay prep, but he's always seemed more confident when he can put a lot of miles in on court. Uncle still says Rafa will play in Paris, tho.

https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/roland-garros-2023-return-in-limbo-rafael-nadal-after-withdraws-rome-hip-injury

Tennis.com: "The 36-year-old hasn’t played since losing in the second round of the Australian Open to Mackenzie McDonald. During his time in Melbourne, the Spaniard picked up a hip injury and has been forced to push back his return timeline on multiple occasions."

[stroke]

Rafa now out of Rome. Would be first time he's ever played Roland Garros without clay tournament prep. One could argue he's had 2 decades of clay prep, but he's always seemed more confident when he can put a lot of miles in on court. Uncle still says Rafa will play in Paris, tho.

https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/roland-garros-2023-return-in-limbo-rafael-nadal-after-withdraws-rome-hip-injury

Tennis.com: "The 36-year-old hasn’t played since losing in the second round of the Australian Open to Mackenzie McDonald. During his time in Melbourne, the Spaniard picked up a hip injury and has been forced to push back his return timeline on multiple occasions."

If he can win RG, it would be be his single biggest win ever, and that is saying something. I just don't think he can do it, but if he gets into the 2nd week, watch out.

[jimlosaltos]

If he can win RG, it would be be his single biggest win ever, and that is saying something. I just don't think he can do it, but if he gets into the 2nd week, watch out.

Feels a bit like Wimbledon 2019 for Fed. Again, I hope Rafa can go out on top. {And that's said as a Fed fan}.

[stroke]

I think he will give it a go at RG, his last hurrah, and I anticipate him and his forehand making the 2nd week. Could be very interesting, but the oddsmakers have it right. The favorite is clear.

[arturohernandez]

I think he will give it a go at RG, his last hurrah, and I anticipate him and his forehand making the 2nd week. Could be very interesting, but the oddsmakers have it right. The favorite is clear.

As long as he is healthy, I see Alcaraz as at the favorite at GS's going forward. There are others who can win 2 sets from him but winning three is a tough ask. He is like a hybrid new age player. An all court grinder who can shift to whatever style of court that suits him. He is also 6 feet tall. Not 6'1".

This means he is extra agile and one might even say he plays like a "smaller" player. But he is big and strong enough to not be pushed around by the big boys.

At this height, the only chance is to hit it above his shoulders and even there he is fast enough to either come in and volley or move back and moon ball.

Kind of scary if you think about it. Like the new Fed sans the beautiful one hander. But definitely a great slice and a great volley.

[stroke]

As long as he is healthy, I see Alcaraz as at the favorite at GS's going forward. There are others who can win 2 sets from him but winning three is a tough ask. He is like a hybrid new age player. An all court grinder who can shift to whatever style of court that suits him. He is also 6 feet tall. Not 6'1".

This means he is extra agile and one might even say he plays like a "smaller" player. But he is big and strong enough to not be pushed around by the big boys.

At this height, the only chance is to hit it above his shoulders and even there he is fast enough to either come in and volley or move back and moon ball.

Kind of scary if you think about it. Like the new Fed sans the beautiful one hander. But definitely a great slice and a great volley.

Not a big deal, but he is most likely 5'11". He is a physical stud and unquestionably the favorite at RG. Nadal was the favorite from 2005-2022, and he backed those odds up pretty darn well.