Miami Open, ATP 1000

[stroke]

Just too many errors for Chris, 35 vs 16 winners. The Wall put up his typical numbers. Chris did save 2 match points with wonderful volleys, but his forehand simply could not carry the needed workload vs Med. Obviously, Alcaraz with his toolbelt can get through the Wall. I think Fritz has a good shot also.

[stroke]

Wall of Med stands and gets the job done vs Khachanov. Up next, very appetizing match up Alcaraz vs Sinner. Sinner to me the only guy out there that can possibly outhit an in form Alcaraz. Oddsmakers have Alcaraz as a firm favorite at an implied probability of winning at about 70%.

[stroke]

This looks like a different sport here, Alcaraz vs Sinner.

[stroke]

Oddsmakers have Wall of Med vs Sinner as a complete toss up, pick 'em. It is certainly on Sinner's racquet, can he control his error count.

[jimlosaltos]

Oddsmakers have Wall of Med vs Sinner as a complete toss up, pick 'em. It is certainly on Sinner's racquet, can he control his error count.

Well, it's late in Tokyo, where I'm suffering from terminal jetlag, but I just watched the 31? Shot rally by Sinner v Alcaraz on my phone on a bullet train, but i couldn't imagine anyone since Peak Fed approaching that.

On the other hand, the game plan that Alcaraz used to dissect Medy in the desert isn't in the Italian's tool kit.

Soooo ... yeah, pick 'em sounds right to me

[stroke]

Alcaraz with his beautiful movement, drop shots, and top tier forehand, certainly reminds me of Fed. Sinner also to some extent. His drop shots are getting better, effortless power on the forehand, and backhand also for that matter, and very efficient court coverage.

[don_budge]

https://www.atptour.com/en/players/atp-head-2-head/daniil-medvedev-vs-jannik-sinner/mm58/s0ag

[stroke]

Medvedev post match interview vs Chris was very interesting. Of course to me, Medvedev is very interesting, one of the best interviews out there. He was asked about Chris and the Challenger Circuit, and he pined that to him, there was really very little difference between the Challengers and ATP tennis wise. He said it was only about consistently playing well. Medvedev said he played Challengers "for years" and only won one.

[stroke]

Sinner gers a break to go up 3-2 first set. Notable in this game to me was Sinner pulling out the ol 2 handed swinging volley on one big point.

[stroke]

The Wall not impressed with the Sinner break, and breaks right back. Very good match.

[don_budge]

Mr. Pencil 6...Sinner 0.

[stroke]

Wall of Pencil continues to reiterate to people like me it is all not about technique.

[jimlosaltos]

All about match-ups. Carlos beats Medy, Sinner beats Carlos. Medy beats Carlos.

Are we seeing early genesis of New Semi-Big-Three cycle aka Peak Big 3 ovelap when Rafa beat Fed, Djokovic beat Rafa. Fed beat Djokovic in a cycle, an Ouroboros, if you want arty.

Carlos can play the game to exploit Medy's court position. Sinner can play well enough with his great forehand depth to beat Carlos, but does have the combo of width & net game to be The Octopus. Thoughts???

[don_budge]

All about match-ups. Carlos beats Medy, Sinner beats Carlos. Medy beats Carlos.

Are we seeing early genesis of New Semi-Big-Three cycle aka Peak Big 3 ovelap when Rafa beat Fed, Djokovic beat Rafa. Fed beat Djokovic in a cycle, an Ouroboros, if you want arty.

Carlos can play the game to exploit Medy's court position. Sinner can play well enough with his great forehand depth to beat Carlos, but does have the combo of width & net game to be The Octopus. Thoughts???

Jannik Sinner was obviously not 100% in the match versus Mr. Pencil. But it might be interesting to see serving stats of the Alcarez and Medvedev matches. I wonder if they might illustrate the fact that Sinner was not feeling well.

For the second straight year I'm at the Miami Open. I'm incredibly impressed with the maturity and improvements that both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannick Sinner have shown in that time. Both are at another level in terms of power and shot making ability. Holger Rune is also very talented but doesn't have the maturity or shot tolerance of Alcaraz and Sinner.

SeanO

Most interesting coming from you firsthand. It is certainly interesting to watch players mature and these two seem to be headed into a situation where they will occupy a spot in the top ten for some foreseeable future. Not sure about staying power. It seems that it is almost easier to get there than to stay there. For most anyways. Exceptions to the rule are the former Big Four.

But what did you think of the Sinner serve seano? I wrote some posts at length about his serve motion change. From pin point to platform. I thought like it had great potential...then it seemed to stall somewhat. Any thoughts?

[jimlosaltos]

Jannik Sinner was obviously not 100% in the match versus Mr. Pencil. But it might be interesting to see serving stats of the Alcarez and Medvedev matches. I wonder if they might illustrate the fact that Sinner was not feeling well.

Your wish is my command:

Final vs Medy: Sinner 56% firsts in, won 69%, first serve ave 196.1 kph vs his historical ave of 192.2 kph. second serve ave 153.2 vs 153.8 historical. Fastest was 215.7 KPH with 55.88% first serves unreturned ( excellent ! )

Semi vs Carlos: 63% in 68% won. 196.2 kph ave first, 164.7 kph ave second. Fastest 221.9 kph and 24.19% first serves unreturned.

So, winning percent and velocity just about the same in both but "unreturned" firsts way up in the final, despite losing.